***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 13.06.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 17.06.2019.-23.06.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 0 100 100 15.7 17.5 19.8 3.4 92.9 92.6 14.0 14.5 15.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 0 100 100 15.9 17.2 19.7 3.3 91.4 90.5 13.3 14.3 14.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 0 100 100 17.3 19.7 19.9 3.4 92.7 92.1 15.0 16.3 16.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 0 100 100 12.6 14.5 17.2 3.2 91.0 90.8 10.3 11.6 12.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 0 100 100 14.2 15.0 17.9 3.3 93.0 92.6 12.0 12.8 13.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 0 100 100 13.1 13.7 14.6 2.7 90.8 90.3 11.3 12.0 12.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 0 100 100 15.4 17.0 19.6 3.2 90.2 89.3 13.8 14.3 14.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 0 100 100 8.6 10.3 14.7 2.8 91.0 89.9 5.5 6.8 7.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 0 100 100 15.4 16.9 18.4 3.6 97.2 96.5 13.5 14.2 14.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 0 100 100 15.2 16.7 16.1 3.2 93.4 92.3 13.3 13.9 14.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 0 100 100 15.4 16.3 17.5 3.3 95.3 94.4 13.0 14.1 14.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 0 100 100 13.3 14.2 16.0 3.1 92.3 91.4 11.0 11.6 12.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 0 100 100 14.5 15.6 16.2 3.1 95.2 94.2 12.8 13.3 14.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 0 100 100 16.0 17.7 17.6 3.1 93.5 92.8 13.8 14.4 15.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 0 100 100 16.6 18.1 19.1 3.3 95.9 95.3 14.0 15.1 16.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 0 100 100 15.7 16.9 16.9 3.2 95.0 93.8 13.5 14.4 14.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 0 100 100 16.0 17.9 19.6 3.4 91.7 91.2 14.0 14.3 15.4 29 Palic 37000G16 0 0 100 100 14.0 14.8 15.3 2.9 90.7 90.0 11.2 12.5 13.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 0 100 100 15.5 17.1 19.7 3.4 92.2 91.4 13.5 14.2 14.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 0 100 100 9.8 10.1 13.1 2.7 89.2 88.2 7.7 8.2 9.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 0 100 100 15.4 16.4 19.2 3.4 94.6 94.2 13.6 13.9 14.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 0 100 100 15.0 17.2 19.7 3.4 93.1 92.6 13.0 13.6 14.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 0 100 100 15.1 16.5 19.7 3.5 93.3 93.1 12.8 13.4 14.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 0 100 100 15.5 17.3 17.6 3.1 92.6 92.2 13.1 14.1 15.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 0 100 100 15.5 16.5 18.7 3.2 92.3 91.5 12.7 13.6 14.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 0 100 100 13.9 14.5 14.5 2.4 89.5 88.6 12.4 12.8 13.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 0 100 100 15.4 16.2 19.2 3.3 92.4 92.0 12.6 13.3 14.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 0 100 100 14.3 15.1 17.7 3.1 92.6 92.1 12.1 13.2 13.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 0 100 100 12.3 14.6 14.5 2.9 91.2 90.3 9.8 10.9 11.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 0 100 100 15.7 17.5 19.9 3.3 91.1 90.4 13.7 14.6 14.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------