***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 13.06.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 17.06.2013.-14.07.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 9999.0 0.0 44.9 110.5 62.9 54.1 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 51 49 0 100 43.9 72.7 47.7 119.3 69.8 55.6 42.8 50.2 64.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 75 25 100 63.1 68.2 43.1 103.4 58.8 51.4 41.6 53.7 70.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 67.9 82.3 49.1 113.4 65.9 54.8 38.7 56.1 82.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 75 25 100 61.7 63.3 50.2 111.8 62.4 53.3 39.2 52.7 66.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 75 25 100 52.6 55.7 64.2 115.1 63.5 56.3 33.4 45.8 56.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 51 49 0 100 38.3 67.5 48.5 120.2 68.3 57.1 39.1 51.1 65.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 94.7 81.2 48.2 97.4 55.6 49.3 61.8 78.9 114.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 55 45 0 100 38.2 56.9 50.0 108.1 61.1 51.9 40.2 52.3 66.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 53 47 0 100 51.9 84.1 52.0 98.3 55.9 48.9 62.3 80.4 92.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 53 47 0 100 34.8 64.5 45.4 110.4 63.5 52.3 34.1 51.7 69.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 75 25 100 58.9 55.5 41.4 106.6 61.6 52.2 33.9 52.6 64.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 46.1 47.6 51.6 115.8 62.0 56.1 33.3 42.0 48.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 96.8 100.6 51.5 97.2 57.5 48.9 60.2 88.5 107.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 49.8 49.6 38.7 104.1 64.5 53.6 27.5 42.8 50.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 52 48 0 100 30.8 50.4 49.8 116.3 64.2 55.0 34.5 45.2 52.0 30 Nis 06700G01 56 44 0 100 36.6 69.3 49.7 123.9 72.1 56.8 35.9 48.9 61.9 29 Palic 37000G16 52 48 0 100 49.7 66.6 56.3 91.9 52.5 47.1 48.5 64.0 87.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 51 49 0 100 41.6 69.7 46.1 114.4 66.7 53.9 41.7 54.6 69.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 72.2 66.1 55.7 89.6 48.8 46.6 57.6 67.6 78.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 54 46 0 100 38.0 65.4 44.6 107.8 62.7 52.7 37.9 57.0 71.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 56 44 0 100 35.1 87.3 48.0 119.4 69.5 54.0 40.6 47.3 74.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 66.9 71.0 44.8 105.4 60.6 51.1 51.4 61.8 78.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 54 46 0 100 52.7 83.1 50.0 94.7 54.9 48.1 70.6 79.9 92.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 75 25 100 64.3 66.1 54.0 111.4 64.7 54.6 36.5 56.8 67.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 47.4 53.2 40.3 112.6 65.0 55.8 32.6 43.5 53.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 51 49 0 100 47.0 78.4 52.1 109.6 63.5 53.9 51.3 63.2 79.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 48.4 56.3 45.2 111.1 64.9 54.3 22.9 40.8 56.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 92.5 86.3 55.9 90.8 50.9 46.8 65.0 82.1 119.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 68.2 72.9 46.3 114.0 65.1 54.2 49.2 62.1 73.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------