***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 13.06.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 08.07.2013.-14.07.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 53 47 0 100 9999.0 0.0 5.3 74.7 63.0 47.2 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 81 19 100 9.1 9.6 5.1 76.3 59.2 50.6 3.4 7.3 13.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 8.6 8.2 5.0 71.9 61.9 48.0 4.4 6.5 8.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 17.7 23.1 5.6 88.7 67.1 49.2 2.8 12.3 22.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 53 47 0 100 4.9 14.9 6.1 88.4 66.4 48.9 3.9 8.6 14.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 11.5 14.3 9.2 99.8 62.9 50.8 4.5 8.6 17.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 81 19 100 5.9 6.2 5.1 77.3 60.3 50.5 2.4 4.3 7.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 27.8 31.2 7.2 93.3 62.5 51.4 18.8 22.0 34.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 56 44 0 100 2.0 7.6 6.0 79.2 62.6 48.6 2.7 4.6 8.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 54 46 0 100 6.8 16.9 7.2 83.5 60.7 48.6 7.7 14.8 20.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 10.8 15.7 5.7 93.1 68.3 49.4 2.8 7.4 14.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 17.7 22.3 5.5 95.9 67.0 52.9 6.6 13.7 19.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 9.9 16.3 6.9 101.2 69.4 52.9 3.2 6.9 15.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 52 48 0 100 6.4 19.1 6.0 68.7 56.1 46.8 5.5 12.1 23.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 5.9 6.5 3.6 76.5 66.4 48.6 1.0 4.6 6.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 14.5 18.0 6.3 98.5 69.3 51.9 5.2 13.0 17.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 80 20 100 5.9 11.1 5.2 78.9 61.1 51.2 3.0 3.8 13.0 29 Palic 37000G16 57 43 0 100 7.5 21.8 8.2 74.6 55.7 47.4 8.4 17.5 25.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 80 20 100 9.9 9.2 4.9 73.9 59.0 50.3 5.3 7.2 10.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 53 47 0 100 8.1 21.7 9.3 84.5 59.8 49.5 7.2 15.1 22.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 52 48 0 100 4.2 11.8 5.1 74.7 64.5 48.4 3.5 8.7 11.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 81 19 100 12.2 11.2 4.7 74.1 59.1 50.4 5.4 9.1 12.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 11.4 15.4 4.8 69.8 59.7 48.8 3.9 8.8 17.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 58 42 0 100 5.6 14.9 6.5 70.5 57.5 47.1 5.8 12.6 18.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 56 44 0 100 3.1 10.3 6.2 78.1 65.0 47.5 3.4 6.7 10.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 9.1 13.7 5.0 90.8 71.7 52.5 3.9 7.4 11.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 53 47 0 100 3.3 15.0 5.9 74.2 62.4 47.0 3.1 6.1 15.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 8.7 9.8 5.0 86.2 67.9 49.9 1.5 5.8 9.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 53 47 0 100 9.4 20.8 8.2 74.1 56.1 47.4 14.3 18.5 30.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 81 19 100 9.4 11.3 5.1 74.6 60.9 49.9 3.6 7.9 12.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------