***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 13.06.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 01.07.2013.-07.07.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 9999.0 0.0 12.3 143.1 73.3 56.0 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 57 43 0 100 4.4 20.2 14.4 165.1 78.0 55.2 4.8 9.7 13.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 75 25 100 13.9 17.8 12.6 144.0 72.2 55.5 3.3 11.6 17.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 9.2 14.2 13.9 143.6 80.4 57.0 3.8 7.9 12.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 10.1 17.0 13.8 138.8 74.7 58.3 2.3 7.8 13.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 8.9 15.8 18.9 136.1 74.9 56.8 2.2 6.5 12.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 53 47 0 100 5.3 27.2 13.6 152.4 77.6 53.2 6.0 10.3 22.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 81 19 100 17.4 27.7 14.0 113.6 69.2 58.3 8.0 13.3 24.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 10.7 18.6 13.5 134.0 72.2 57.9 2.0 6.9 14.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 80 20 100 15.0 16.5 14.7 118.4 68.3 57.2 6.8 13.4 15.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 8.4 12.6 12.5 129.1 72.9 58.6 4.3 6.8 9.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 80 20 100 8.5 14.3 11.7 124.4 74.0 58.3 3.5 6.3 12.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 6.5 10.4 15.1 142.3 75.9 58.2 2.5 5.1 7.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 15.7 30.6 16.0 125.8 71.3 54.9 5.8 9.8 22.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 51 49 0 100 0.7 22.8 11.4 139.9 79.8 56.0 0.6 1.4 5.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 6.3 10.6 14.3 140.2 75.7 58.0 2.7 4.7 8.0 30 Nis 06700G01 53 47 0 100 2.5 18.5 14.2 151.3 78.5 54.2 2.7 5.1 14.9 29 Palic 37000G16 0 81 19 100 13.8 13.6 16.5 111.1 65.5 55.5 9.0 11.4 14.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 56 44 0 100 4.2 24.7 14.6 165.5 77.0 55.8 4.0 7.9 11.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 82 18 100 14.4 17.4 16.9 104.6 65.5 57.0 8.9 12.3 17.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 12.4 16.0 11.9 138.3 72.3 57.3 5.2 11.0 14.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 53 47 0 100 4.4 21.2 14.8 154.1 79.6 55.5 3.8 9.0 14.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 55 45 0 100 6.6 23.1 14.4 152.5 74.3 55.0 6.1 10.4 14.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 15.2 18.6 14.8 121.6 67.6 54.7 5.9 12.5 18.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 9.2 17.0 15.3 140.7 72.5 56.9 4.1 6.1 13.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 51 49 0 100 2.4 12.1 12.3 145.3 75.6 59.2 2.0 4.7 6.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 14.3 20.4 14.9 140.7 71.1 55.1 5.3 11.2 15.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 9.0 23.3 13.2 144.8 80.4 56.2 1.9 5.6 10.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 82 18 100 17.6 21.4 16.7 109.4 65.7 55.6 8.0 13.6 21.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 56 44 0 100 5.3 16.5 13.9 159.3 76.4 54.8 6.5 8.4 12.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------