***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 13.06.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 24.06.2013.-30.06.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 9999.0 0.0 12.9 130.0 70.0 54.4 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 16.6 22.8 13.4 135.6 75.3 55.6 11.7 14.7 18.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 14.9 21.0 12.5 118.6 67.5 53.2 8.5 12.8 20.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 80 20 100 10.7 15.6 15.2 146.3 76.9 57.3 5.9 9.2 11.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 12.3 21.2 16.1 145.2 75.0 56.8 5.1 9.5 15.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 8.0 18.8 23.1 155.5 75.7 60.7 1.4 4.8 8.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 10.8 17.0 14.0 134.1 73.2 55.2 6.6 8.6 11.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 20.2 25.3 15.8 125.9 70.5 56.0 7.2 17.1 22.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 9.2 14.6 16.0 132.3 70.4 56.4 3.7 6.0 12.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 13.9 14.6 16.9 123.9 68.4 56.1 6.0 12.3 14.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 9.5 20.3 14.6 145.9 76.8 55.8 3.6 5.9 10.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 11.8 21.2 13.8 148.6 77.3 57.5 2.8 8.6 15.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 8.0 11.5 18.1 160.9 79.4 60.0 3.3 6.9 10.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 82 18 100 19.7 21.8 15.6 106.7 63.2 54.5 8.8 16.5 22.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 80 20 100 5.8 16.4 11.9 129.6 74.1 57.5 0.4 2.3 10.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 8.2 15.8 16.8 159.5 79.7 58.1 1.6 6.6 8.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 11.6 16.7 13.8 139.0 76.3 54.8 4.5 10.0 15.8 29 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 14.7 16.1 18.8 113.5 65.0 56.2 7.8 12.4 16.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 12.3 16.2 12.6 127.9 73.4 54.7 8.3 10.3 15.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 81 19 100 14.0 19.0 19.1 112.5 64.0 55.5 7.7 11.9 20.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 11.8 18.0 13.8 129.8 68.5 54.9 5.6 9.2 12.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 51 49 0 100 5.4 16.6 13.4 132.3 77.4 54.8 6.0 8.4 11.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 16.0 17.7 12.3 113.9 67.4 53.0 8.5 12.4 17.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 23.0 21.5 15.8 110.5 63.8 54.9 11.8 18.2 22.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 12.4 13.4 15.7 131.9 71.5 55.6 8.6 11.2 12.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 7.5 17.6 14.3 172.4 79.6 62.2 0.9 4.9 14.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 12.2 17.1 15.1 127.3 70.1 54.3 5.9 10.4 16.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 80 20 100 5.3 12.8 14.6 150.7 77.9 57.8 1.4 3.4 8.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 18.2 22.1 18.8 111.7 64.5 56.4 12.7 16.0 23.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 15.5 22.8 13.2 129.9 73.2 54.5 11.3 12.7 20.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------