***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 13.06.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 17.06.2013.-23.06.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 62 38 0 100 9999.0 0.0 14.5 95.8 60.5 42.6 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 63 37 0 100 6.1 18.2 14.9 100.9 63.0 43.5 10.1 14.4 18.6 30 Becej 27400G00 62 38 0 100 4.9 13.3 12.9 84.1 58.9 41.0 6.6 12.0 22.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 66 34 0 100 3.0 12.9 14.4 85.1 58.7 40.9 2.8 7.5 25.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 66 34 0 100 3.3 18.0 14.3 84.1 58.6 39.8 2.8 9.4 24.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 55 45 0 100 7.7 20.3 12.9 73.0 57.4 42.6 4.7 16.8 25.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 62 38 0 100 5.5 17.3 15.8 110.2 66.1 44.8 8.0 10.0 17.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 63 37 0 100 7.3 18.4 11.3 66.7 53.5 38.9 5.2 16.9 31.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 58 42 0 100 5.6 16.9 14.5 87.8 57.6 44.4 6.5 12.5 20.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 62 38 0 100 6.2 20.0 13.2 72.9 54.8 39.6 4.8 15.5 33.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 66 34 0 100 4.6 22.0 12.7 82.7 61.3 41.8 4.4 13.1 24.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 59 41 0 100 3.9 12.0 10.4 72.2 56.6 41.5 2.5 9.1 19.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 66 34 0 100 4.2 16.3 11.5 72.6 57.0 42.1 3.8 11.6 20.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 55 45 0 100 10.7 26.1 13.9 82.3 59.9 44.4 9.6 21.2 32.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 54 46 0 100 1.8 8.8 11.8 78.3 61.7 48.1 1.3 3.9 10.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 65 35 0 100 4.1 17.4 12.5 79.3 59.8 43.3 2.6 11.1 21.3 30 Nis 06700G01 64 36 0 100 4.8 19.7 16.5 116.1 66.0 44.3 6.7 12.4 19.7 29 Palic 37000G16 62 38 0 100 4.4 9.1 12.8 67.9 49.0 38.8 4.6 10.5 23.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 65 35 0 100 4.5 18.3 14.0 93.6 61.7 42.6 5.1 11.8 20.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 62 38 0 100 7.7 14.9 10.4 57.6 45.8 34.8 8.1 16.8 21.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 61 39 0 100 4.8 17.7 13.8 90.1 62.4 44.4 7.0 9.4 18.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 64 36 0 100 5.0 14.9 15.0 106.9 64.8 43.2 7.6 9.8 15.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 66 34 0 100 5.9 16.5 13.3 86.5 60.8 42.1 9.4 12.9 16.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 55 45 0 100 10.4 25.3 12.9 75.5 54.0 42.2 9.1 20.1 31.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 57 43 0 100 4.9 12.7 16.8 94.8 61.5 43.9 6.1 9.6 16.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 16.8 19.2 8.6 64.0 57.2 43.4 2.6 13.3 21.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 60 40 0 100 9.3 22.4 16.1 94.6 60.0 42.8 7.8 15.9 26.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 64 36 0 100 2.7 15.9 12.4 77.2 59.0 43.0 1.9 7.6 17.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 61 39 0 100 7.8 16.9 12.1 66.2 48.3 38.8 7.9 18.3 33.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 64 36 0 100 4.1 12.3 14.2 94.9 61.6 42.4 5.6 9.2 16.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------