***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 13.06.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 17.06.2013.-14.07.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 82 18 100 9999.0 0.0 28.3 0.6 66.0 61.7 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 86 14 100 27.5 27.6 28.3 0.5 61.0 59.5 26.8 27.2 28.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 42 58 100 28.1 28.2 28.6 0.7 67.6 63.7 26.6 27.3 28.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 83 17 100 20.7 20.9 26.6 0.2 63.5 57.4 19.9 20.4 21.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 80 20 100 28.2 28.4 26.5 0.2 61.5 57.0 26.9 27.9 28.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 81 19 100 26.7 27.3 24.3 0.4 65.0 60.9 25.7 26.4 27.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 86 14 100 27.4 27.7 28.1 0.4 61.7 58.9 26.9 27.2 27.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 40 60 100 16.5 16.6 24.7 0.2 63.7 58.2 15.1 15.7 16.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 80 20 100 27.6 28.2 27.0 0.3 63.0 58.3 26.3 27.4 28.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 27.4 27.9 25.5 0.3 64.6 59.2 26.2 27.1 27.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 80 20 100 27.7 28.1 26.1 0.3 64.6 58.9 26.5 27.5 28.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 26.9 27.3 25.8 0.3 63.3 58.2 25.7 26.6 27.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 80 20 100 28.0 28.4 25.4 0.3 63.2 58.5 26.8 27.8 28.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 83 17 100 27.2 27.6 26.7 0.6 65.3 61.3 26.2 27.0 27.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 83 17 100 28.6 28.8 27.7 0.5 64.2 61.3 28.0 28.3 28.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 28.6 29.3 25.9 0.3 63.3 58.7 27.2 28.2 29.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 87 13 100 26.9 27.3 27.7 0.2 61.1 57.2 26.3 26.8 27.5 29 Palic 37000G16 0 41 59 100 27.2 27.1 24.7 0.4 63.5 60.5 25.5 26.3 27.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 85 15 100 27.0 27.3 28.4 0.6 63.0 60.9 26.2 26.8 27.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 39 61 100 22.9 22.7 22.6 0.3 62.9 60.0 21.4 22.1 22.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 81 19 100 27.9 28.2 27.9 0.5 64.8 60.1 26.7 27.6 28.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 88 12 100 27.3 27.9 27.8 0.4 62.0 58.9 26.6 27.1 27.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 85 15 100 27.2 27.8 28.3 0.7 65.4 62.5 26.5 27.0 27.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 40 60 100 27.3 27.5 26.7 0.6 66.1 62.6 26.1 26.5 27.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 83 17 100 27.6 28.0 26.9 0.4 63.7 60.3 27.0 27.4 28.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 81 19 100 27.7 27.7 25.1 0.1 55.9 55.0 26.6 27.5 27.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 84 16 100 27.0 27.7 27.5 0.5 66.1 61.7 26.5 26.8 27.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 82 18 100 28.8 29.1 27.0 0.3 63.1 58.5 27.5 28.6 29.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 42 58 100 22.4 22.7 23.7 0.4 64.2 61.1 20.8 21.4 22.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 85 15 100 27.1 27.6 28.5 0.6 62.8 60.9 26.7 26.9 27.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------