***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 13.06.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 08.07.2013.-14.07.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 9999.0 0.0 28.7 0.1 50.7 50.4 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 27.9 27.2 28.7 0.0 49.3 50.7 26.7 27.2 29.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 27.9 27.6 29.0 0.3 54.2 53.2 26.6 27.3 29.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 51 49 0 100 19.7 20.3 27.1 -0.4 42.7 46.5 19.2 21.4 22.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 28.5 27.3 26.8 -0.4 41.3 46.6 26.7 27.8 30.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 54 46 0 100 25.7 27.1 24.6 -0.2 46.6 50.4 25.3 27.2 28.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 28.1 27.4 28.4 -0.1 50.2 49.7 26.7 27.4 28.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 57 43 0 100 14.4 15.4 25.0 -0.3 43.1 48.0 15.0 15.9 17.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 28.3 27.3 27.1 -0.2 45.3 48.5 26.6 27.8 29.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 54 46 0 100 26.2 27.5 25.7 -0.2 45.8 48.8 26.3 27.5 28.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 55 45 0 100 26.5 27.2 26.3 -0.3 42.3 48.4 26.3 27.8 29.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 57 43 0 100 25.7 26.6 26.1 -0.3 42.9 48.3 25.8 27.0 28.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 53 47 0 100 26.7 27.6 25.6 -0.3 43.6 48.5 27.0 27.9 29.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 27.9 27.3 26.9 0.1 52.1 52.6 26.2 27.3 29.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 29.5 28.9 28.1 -0.1 49.1 51.5 27.4 28.9 30.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 55 45 0 100 27.6 28.0 26.2 -0.3 41.5 47.9 27.6 29.0 30.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 27.7 27.1 28.1 -0.2 49.2 48.4 26.0 27.1 28.9 29 Palic 37000G16 0 75 25 100 27.0 26.2 25.0 0.0 49.4 50.5 25.5 26.4 28.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 27.8 27.2 28.9 0.2 50.7 52.2 26.0 27.2 28.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 51 49 0 100 20.9 21.6 22.7 -0.2 44.8 48.9 21.0 22.1 23.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 28.4 27.6 28.1 -0.1 49.0 49.6 26.3 27.9 29.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 75 25 100 28.2 27.7 28.3 0.0 50.4 50.6 26.5 27.7 29.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 28.0 27.6 28.7 0.3 53.4 53.6 26.1 27.4 29.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 27.5 27.0 26.9 0.2 51.6 52.7 25.9 26.9 28.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 75 25 100 28.9 28.5 27.2 -0.1 50.0 48.9 26.5 28.5 29.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 53 47 0 100 26.3 27.1 25.6 -0.5 41.5 46.5 26.7 27.4 29.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 27.9 27.3 27.7 0.0 50.2 49.9 26.2 27.3 29.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 51 49 0 100 27.7 28.3 27.5 -0.3 43.0 48.3 27.3 28.9 30.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 75 25 100 22.6 21.8 23.9 0.0 48.5 50.6 20.5 22.1 23.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 28.0 27.3 28.9 0.1 49.9 51.6 26.3 27.3 29.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------