***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 13.06.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 01.07.2013.-07.07.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 66 34 0 100 9999.0 0.0 27.1 -1.2 31.8 37.5 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 59 41 0 100 27.1 27.5 27.1 -1.2 34.5 37.8 27.4 28.5 29.3 30 Becej 27400G00 57 43 0 100 26.9 28.4 27.3 -1.0 39.1 40.0 28.3 28.7 29.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 55 45 0 100 19.8 20.4 25.5 -1.6 30.6 34.5 20.6 21.9 22.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 57 43 0 100 27.6 27.9 25.2 -1.6 30.6 34.7 28.2 29.5 30.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 58 42 0 100 25.6 26.4 23.2 -1.3 36.5 38.0 26.0 27.5 29.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 60 40 0 100 26.9 27.6 26.9 -1.3 35.3 36.7 27.5 28.5 29.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 54 46 0 100 15.5 15.7 23.5 -1.4 37.1 36.5 15.4 16.8 18.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 58 42 0 100 27.1 27.5 25.5 -1.4 32.5 35.8 27.5 28.8 30.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 58 42 0 100 26.7 27.7 24.2 -1.4 35.2 36.1 27.6 28.6 30.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 56 44 0 100 27.2 27.6 24.8 -1.4 35.0 36.3 27.5 29.4 30.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 54 46 0 100 26.2 26.7 24.6 -1.4 37.5 37.1 26.5 27.7 29.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 57 43 0 100 27.2 28.3 24.1 -1.4 37.6 37.2 27.6 28.9 31.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 55 45 0 100 27.0 27.9 25.3 -1.1 36.8 38.7 27.8 28.4 28.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 52 48 0 100 28.0 29.3 26.5 -1.2 40.6 38.3 28.5 30.0 30.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 56 44 0 100 27.6 28.4 24.6 -1.4 35.7 36.5 28.1 30.0 31.6 30 Nis 06700G01 64 36 0 100 26.4 26.2 26.6 -1.4 32.4 35.7 26.2 27.8 28.9 29 Palic 37000G16 56 44 0 100 26.0 26.9 23.4 -1.3 37.8 37.1 26.7 27.8 29.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 57 43 0 100 26.6 27.7 27.2 -1.1 36.0 39.3 27.6 28.1 28.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 55 45 0 100 21.7 21.7 21.3 -1.4 38.2 36.7 21.3 23.5 24.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 61 39 0 100 27.1 27.9 26.5 -1.3 33.3 36.8 27.9 29.1 29.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 65 35 0 100 26.8 26.8 26.7 -1.1 33.6 38.3 26.8 28.6 29.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 53 47 0 100 26.9 28.0 27.0 -1.0 38.3 40.6 27.7 28.3 28.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 55 45 0 100 26.5 27.8 25.3 -1.1 39.1 39.2 27.5 28.0 28.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 62 38 0 100 27.1 27.6 25.6 -1.4 32.0 36.0 27.7 29.1 29.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 57 43 0 100 27.0 27.0 24.1 -1.6 34.7 35.5 27.0 28.5 29.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 64 36 0 100 26.8 27.4 26.2 -1.2 32.6 36.9 27.5 28.4 29.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 53 47 0 100 27.6 28.6 25.9 -1.5 34.8 36.0 28.6 29.7 31.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 55 45 0 100 21.1 21.8 22.4 -1.4 37.8 37.0 21.6 22.9 24.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 58 42 0 100 26.8 27.5 27.3 -1.2 35.9 38.6 27.3 28.5 29.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------