***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 13.06.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 24.06.2013.-30.06.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 9999.0 0.0 27.3 -0.3 51.7 49.3 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 27.6 27.0 27.1 -0.5 49.9 48.3 26.3 27.0 28.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 27.7 27.3 27.5 -0.2 53.7 50.3 25.9 27.1 28.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 20.5 19.4 25.7 -0.5 46.7 46.7 18.3 19.9 21.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 28.1 27.1 25.5 -0.6 46.1 45.7 25.8 27.4 29.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 80 20 100 26.7 26.1 23.5 -0.2 51.3 48.8 24.8 26.1 27.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 27.5 26.8 27.0 -0.5 48.7 47.8 26.1 26.8 28.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 52 48 0 100 14.1 15.4 23.8 -0.6 46.9 45.9 14.2 15.6 17.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 75 25 100 28.0 27.1 25.8 -0.5 47.8 46.4 25.2 27.3 29.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 53 47 0 100 25.2 26.4 24.5 -0.6 47.9 46.4 24.8 26.7 29.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 27.7 26.9 25.0 -0.5 49.2 46.6 25.2 27.0 28.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 51 49 0 100 24.7 25.6 24.8 -0.6 46.7 46.3 24.7 26.0 27.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 28.1 27.1 24.3 -0.5 47.3 46.9 25.7 27.3 28.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 27.6 27.0 25.4 -0.5 49.4 47.1 25.5 27.1 28.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 81 19 100 28.5 28.3 26.6 -0.1 52.8 50.7 26.6 28.0 29.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 28.7 27.9 24.8 -0.5 48.3 46.7 26.2 28.1 29.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 27.2 26.4 26.6 -0.7 47.0 46.1 25.7 26.7 27.5 29 Palic 37000G16 52 48 0 100 24.6 25.8 23.7 -0.5 48.0 46.7 24.2 26.1 27.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 27.2 26.7 27.3 -0.4 51.9 49.0 25.7 26.7 28.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 75 25 100 22.5 21.3 21.5 -0.6 44.8 45.7 20.1 21.7 23.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 27.6 27.0 26.8 -0.4 50.3 48.1 25.7 27.0 28.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 27.6 27.0 26.6 -0.6 48.7 47.0 26.3 27.0 28.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 80 20 100 27.6 27.3 27.1 -0.3 53.9 49.1 25.9 27.0 28.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 26.9 26.2 25.5 -0.4 51.7 48.3 24.9 26.2 28.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 28.0 27.5 25.8 -0.3 49.3 48.5 25.8 27.5 29.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 53 47 0 100 25.8 26.1 24.2 -0.7 44.4 44.8 25.8 27.1 28.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 27.3 26.8 26.4 -0.3 50.7 49.2 25.3 26.8 28.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 28.9 28.2 26.1 -0.4 48.3 47.8 26.9 28.4 30.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 51 49 0 100 19.8 21.3 22.7 -0.5 47.7 46.7 19.7 21.5 23.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 27.5 27.0 27.4 -0.3 50.9 49.2 25.4 27.0 28.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------