***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 13.06.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 17.06.2013.-23.06.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 10 90 100 9999.0 0.0 30.3 3.7 87.4 85.4 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 13 87 100 28.5 29.1 30.1 3.5 82.2 82.2 25.3 26.9 28.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 11 89 100 28.6 30.0 30.6 3.9 86.8 85.1 25.3 26.8 28.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 13 87 100 22.3 23.2 28.0 3.4 84.5 83.5 19.0 19.9 21.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 15 85 100 29.2 30.1 28.6 3.4 84.1 83.0 25.7 27.1 28.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 9 91 100 27.7 29.1 26.1 3.4 86.0 85.6 24.5 25.5 26.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 12 88 100 28.7 29.4 29.9 3.4 83.6 82.5 24.8 26.8 28.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 15 85 100 16.5 17.0 26.5 3.3 82.1 81.7 13.5 15.4 15.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 14 86 100 28.7 29.6 29.4 3.5 84.8 83.3 25.4 26.4 28.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 13 87 100 28.3 29.7 27.7 3.6 84.6 83.4 25.3 26.1 28.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 16 84 100 28.9 29.9 28.3 3.4 84.2 83.4 25.6 26.5 28.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 14 86 100 27.6 28.5 27.5 3.3 82.7 82.3 24.9 25.8 26.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 15 85 100 28.8 29.7 27.6 3.4 83.7 83.8 25.7 26.7 27.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 19 81 100 28.5 29.6 29.1 3.7 86.0 84.0 24.4 26.9 28.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 11 89 100 29.6 30.6 29.6 3.2 84.8 83.8 26.1 27.9 29.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 15 85 100 29.5 30.8 28.1 3.5 84.7 84.3 26.6 27.3 28.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 9 91 100 28.2 28.6 29.6 3.3 81.4 81.8 24.8 26.4 27.7 29 Palic 37000G16 0 14 86 100 27.8 29.4 26.9 3.7 86.7 83.6 24.4 25.7 26.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 12 88 100 28.3 28.9 30.3 3.6 83.5 83.0 24.6 26.5 27.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 7 93 100 22.8 24.5 24.7 3.6 83.9 82.8 19.8 21.7 22.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 12 88 100 28.9 30.3 30.3 3.6 85.9 83.6 25.4 26.5 28.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 12 88 100 28.8 29.4 29.7 3.4 83.9 82.5 25.0 26.6 28.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 12 88 100 28.4 28.7 30.3 3.8 85.8 84.5 25.0 27.0 27.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 15 85 100 27.8 29.8 29.0 3.8 86.7 84.6 24.7 26.2 27.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 10 90 100 28.9 30.6 29.0 3.6 87.1 84.6 25.3 27.1 28.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 19 81 100 28.1 28.6 26.6 3.0 80.7 80.0 25.2 26.3 27.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 7 93 100 27.9 29.8 29.6 3.7 88.0 85.7 24.9 26.6 27.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 13 87 100 29.9 30.6 28.7 3.3 84.4 83.5 26.3 27.6 29.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 12 88 100 23.0 24.4 26.1 3.7 85.5 83.6 19.4 21.3 22.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 12 88 100 28.5 29.2 30.4 3.6 83.6 83.4 25.1 26.9 28.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------