***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 13.06.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 17.06.2013.-14.07.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 40 60 100 9999.0 0.0 18.1 0.7 73.0 68.5 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 85 15 100 15.3 15.4 18.1 0.6 65.6 64.3 14.3 15.2 15.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 39 61 100 17.2 17.2 18.1 0.8 71.5 69.0 16.4 16.8 17.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 85 15 100 12.1 12.2 16.2 0.4 64.3 62.6 11.5 12.0 12.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 84 16 100 13.9 14.0 15.9 0.3 62.7 60.3 13.4 13.8 14.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 37 63 100 13.0 13.0 14.2 0.6 69.0 65.3 12.3 12.7 13.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 85 15 100 15.4 15.4 18.0 0.5 64.9 63.0 14.8 15.3 15.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 45 55 100 8.2 8.1 14.0 0.5 68.6 63.6 7.4 7.8 8.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 84 16 100 15.0 15.3 16.2 0.4 65.3 61.2 14.3 14.9 15.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 83 17 100 14.9 15.2 14.7 0.4 67.9 62.8 14.3 14.8 15.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 83 17 100 14.9 15.1 15.4 0.4 66.9 62.0 14.4 14.7 15.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 84 16 100 12.8 13.0 14.8 0.4 67.1 62.8 12.3 12.7 12.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 84 16 100 14.2 14.3 14.3 0.3 62.0 58.5 13.8 14.1 14.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 85 15 100 15.6 15.6 16.2 0.5 63.6 62.5 15.1 15.5 15.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 44 56 100 16.4 16.7 17.2 0.5 68.8 65.3 15.4 15.8 16.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 83 17 100 15.2 15.3 15.1 0.3 63.7 60.2 14.4 15.1 15.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 85 15 100 15.7 15.7 17.7 0.5 65.2 63.3 15.1 15.6 15.7 29 Palic 37000G16 0 45 55 100 13.8 13.7 13.9 0.4 66.9 63.0 13.0 13.5 13.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 85 15 100 15.0 15.3 18.1 0.6 67.1 65.6 14.6 15.0 15.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 43 57 100 9.6 9.5 12.0 0.4 67.7 62.5 9.0 9.3 9.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 42 58 100 15.2 15.2 17.4 0.5 68.1 65.2 14.3 14.8 15.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 86 14 100 14.7 14.9 17.6 0.5 63.6 63.1 14.3 14.6 15.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 85 15 100 14.5 14.7 17.8 0.6 67.6 66.2 14.2 14.5 14.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 42 58 100 15.6 15.5 16.1 0.6 67.0 65.1 14.6 15.1 15.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 40 60 100 15.1 15.1 16.7 0.6 69.9 66.2 14.4 14.7 15.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 82 18 100 13.7 13.7 14.1 0.1 55.1 53.6 13.3 13.7 14.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 40 60 100 15.0 15.0 17.3 0.6 71.1 67.2 14.2 14.5 15.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 84 16 100 13.9 14.1 16.6 0.4 65.2 62.4 13.5 13.8 14.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 85 15 100 11.8 12.1 13.2 0.4 65.6 62.5 11.5 11.6 12.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 46 54 100 15.6 15.5 18.3 0.6 67.0 65.6 14.8 15.3 15.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------