***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 13.06.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 08.07.2013.-14.07.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 9999.0 0.0 17.9 0.0 51.6 51.8 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 75 25 100 15.2 15.0 18.0 0.0 53.1 50.3 13.6 14.6 15.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 17.1 17.2 18.1 0.3 58.9 54.6 15.9 16.6 17.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 62 38 0 100 10.8 11.5 16.2 -0.2 44.9 46.6 11.0 12.0 13.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 59 41 0 100 12.5 14.0 15.9 -0.2 45.4 47.8 12.8 14.0 14.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 57 43 0 100 11.7 12.6 14.3 0.1 48.3 51.4 11.9 12.6 13.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 51 49 0 100 14.2 15.1 17.9 -0.1 50.8 48.6 14.5 15.1 15.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 52 48 0 100 6.8 7.5 14.0 -0.1 49.3 48.3 7.2 7.5 8.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 54 46 0 100 14.0 15.0 16.3 0.0 50.2 50.3 14.2 15.0 15.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 51 49 0 100 14.0 15.2 14.7 0.0 51.2 50.0 13.8 15.2 15.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 52 48 0 100 13.8 14.8 15.5 0.0 49.1 49.4 13.9 14.9 15.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 55 45 0 100 11.5 12.8 15.0 -0.1 48.2 48.4 11.8 12.9 13.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 56 44 0 100 12.9 14.0 14.4 0.0 48.7 49.4 12.9 14.1 15.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 15.9 16.2 16.3 0.2 60.4 53.1 14.5 15.6 16.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 54 46 0 100 15.6 16.4 17.3 0.0 52.5 50.5 15.8 16.4 16.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 57 43 0 100 14.1 15.4 15.2 -0.1 48.1 48.4 14.3 15.5 16.2 30 Nis 06700G01 55 45 0 100 14.5 15.4 17.5 -0.2 49.5 48.5 14.7 15.4 16.1 29 Palic 37000G16 56 44 0 100 12.1 13.6 14.0 0.1 55.7 51.9 12.0 13.4 14.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 15.2 15.0 18.1 0.1 55.9 52.1 13.9 14.8 15.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 53 47 0 100 7.8 9.4 12.2 0.0 50.7 50.0 8.8 9.4 9.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 51 49 0 100 13.6 14.9 17.3 0.1 52.3 51.8 13.4 14.9 15.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 15.2 14.9 17.6 0.0 52.6 50.0 13.6 14.7 15.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 15.0 15.1 17.9 0.2 58.8 53.7 13.6 14.7 15.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 53 47 0 100 14.3 16.2 16.2 0.2 60.9 54.2 14.5 15.4 16.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 53 47 0 100 13.6 14.9 16.4 -0.1 47.9 49.5 14.0 14.9 15.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 63 37 0 100 12.6 13.1 14.2 -0.4 36.3 43.0 12.9 13.5 14.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 75 25 100 15.0 14.7 17.1 0.0 50.2 50.6 13.5 14.7 15.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 58 42 0 100 12.9 14.1 16.7 -0.2 48.7 47.8 13.3 14.2 15.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 51 49 0 100 10.9 12.2 13.4 0.1 56.2 52.7 11.1 11.9 12.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 15.5 15.5 18.2 0.0 55.0 51.2 14.3 14.9 16.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------