***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 13.06.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 01.07.2013.-07.07.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 9999.0 0.0 17.3 -0.5 40.9 41.6 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 75 25 100 16.1 15.1 17.3 -0.7 37.7 39.7 15.0 15.9 16.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 17.8 17.4 17.4 -0.4 41.0 42.7 17.0 17.5 18.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 62 38 0 100 12.0 12.0 15.4 -0.8 30.5 35.7 12.1 13.1 13.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 65 35 0 100 12.8 13.8 15.2 -0.8 30.6 35.4 13.9 14.4 15.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 58 42 0 100 12.2 12.7 13.5 -0.6 36.4 40.0 12.6 13.4 14.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 16.1 15.7 17.3 -0.7 37.3 39.7 15.6 15.9 16.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 60 40 0 100 7.5 7.8 13.3 -0.7 33.5 37.8 7.8 8.8 9.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 58 42 0 100 14.5 14.8 15.5 -0.8 33.5 36.8 14.7 15.1 16.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 59 41 0 100 14.4 14.4 14.0 -0.7 35.0 38.1 14.4 15.3 16.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 57 43 0 100 13.9 14.8 14.8 -0.6 36.7 39.0 14.7 15.3 16.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 57 43 0 100 12.1 12.8 14.2 -0.7 32.0 38.0 12.8 13.2 13.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 56 44 0 100 13.6 14.1 13.7 -0.7 27.2 37.7 14.2 14.8 15.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 59 41 0 100 14.8 15.6 15.5 -0.7 35.9 38.7 15.6 16.0 16.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 17.0 16.2 16.4 -0.6 39.0 41.0 16.0 16.7 17.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 58 42 0 100 14.6 14.7 14.5 -0.7 31.9 38.1 14.9 15.9 16.6 30 Nis 06700G01 52 48 0 100 15.4 15.7 16.8 -0.8 36.6 38.1 15.3 16.1 16.8 29 Palic 37000G16 60 40 0 100 12.8 13.4 13.3 -0.7 35.5 38.5 13.3 14.1 14.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 52 48 0 100 14.7 15.0 17.3 -0.6 38.2 40.5 15.0 15.3 15.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 71 29 0 100 8.4 9.1 11.5 -0.7 31.2 36.7 9.2 9.7 10.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 54 46 0 100 14.5 14.7 16.5 -0.7 36.5 38.3 14.6 15.4 16.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 55 45 0 100 14.1 14.4 16.8 -0.7 35.4 38.6 14.1 15.1 15.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 58 42 0 100 14.0 14.5 17.1 -0.6 37.2 41.0 14.4 14.9 15.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 52 48 0 100 14.7 15.3 15.4 -0.5 39.9 40.9 15.1 15.6 16.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 15.9 14.9 15.8 -0.6 37.3 39.5 14.8 15.7 16.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 63 37 0 100 13.3 13.2 13.5 -0.9 24.3 32.4 13.7 14.7 15.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 15.6 15.1 16.5 -0.5 41.1 41.8 14.9 15.3 16.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 56 44 0 100 13.2 13.8 15.9 -0.7 33.9 37.4 13.7 14.7 15.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 65 35 0 100 11.6 11.5 12.6 -0.7 35.8 38.4 11.4 12.9 13.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 16.3 15.7 17.5 -0.6 39.2 41.1 15.6 16.0 16.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------