***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 13.06.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 24.06.2013.-30.06.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 82 18 100 9999.0 0.0 17.6 0.0 53.2 52.1 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 80 20 100 14.8 14.5 17.5 -0.2 51.3 50.0 13.8 14.5 15.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 81 19 100 16.4 16.4 17.6 0.1 56.8 53.3 15.5 16.0 17.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 11.7 11.2 15.7 -0.1 51.6 49.3 10.6 11.2 12.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 13.9 13.7 15.4 -0.1 51.0 49.5 12.3 13.7 14.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 83 17 100 12.5 12.4 13.8 0.1 53.8 52.6 11.7 12.3 12.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 15.0 14.7 17.5 -0.2 49.7 49.8 14.0 14.8 15.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 8.1 7.9 13.6 0.1 53.2 52.1 6.7 7.7 8.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 14.7 14.7 15.8 0.0 53.2 50.7 13.8 14.4 15.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 14.7 14.4 14.3 0.1 54.8 52.0 13.7 14.3 15.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 14.8 14.8 15.0 0.0 53.1 51.6 13.4 14.5 15.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 80 20 100 12.9 12.8 14.4 0.0 51.1 51.5 11.2 12.7 13.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 85 15 100 13.9 13.6 13.9 0.0 50.1 50.5 13.2 13.6 14.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 15.3 15.0 15.6 -0.1 50.2 49.1 14.7 15.0 15.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 15.7 15.4 16.8 0.2 53.5 53.3 15.0 15.3 16.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 80 20 100 14.8 14.6 14.7 0.0 52.6 50.9 13.7 14.4 15.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 80 20 100 15.5 15.3 17.1 -0.2 49.5 49.2 14.7 15.3 15.6 29 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 13.6 13.5 13.5 0.1 54.6 51.8 12.5 13.4 13.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 80 20 100 14.9 14.8 17.4 -0.1 52.2 50.5 13.8 14.7 15.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 83 17 100 9.6 9.4 11.7 0.0 51.6 51.6 8.4 9.3 9.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 81 19 100 14.8 14.7 16.9 0.0 54.2 51.8 13.3 14.6 14.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 80 20 100 14.5 14.2 16.9 -0.2 48.9 48.8 13.5 14.2 14.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 14.3 14.1 17.1 -0.1 51.0 50.3 13.4 14.0 14.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 15.2 15.0 15.5 0.1 54.6 51.8 14.1 14.9 15.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 82 18 100 14.6 14.4 16.1 0.0 53.0 50.9 13.5 14.3 15.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 81 19 100 13.6 13.2 13.9 -0.2 46.6 47.4 12.7 13.2 14.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 82 18 100 14.5 14.3 16.8 0.0 52.8 51.4 13.3 14.2 14.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 13.9 13.6 16.1 0.0 52.3 50.9 12.7 13.5 14.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 81 19 100 11.7 11.3 12.8 0.0 52.3 51.7 10.7 11.3 12.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 80 20 100 15.1 14.8 17.6 -0.1 52.4 51.0 13.9 14.7 15.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------