***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 12.06.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 16.06.2014.-13.07.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 26 74 100 78.8 105.5 75.8 182.2 87.3 78.8 41.6 52.8 63.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 23 77 100 72.8 99.6 65.9 157.3 83.4 74.4 40.9 50.3 69.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 22 78 100 85.7 125.2 76.0 178.1 86.6 79.1 45.8 56.2 75.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 22 78 100 93.4 117.2 85.4 184.7 86.1 79.4 43.4 56.1 86.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 25 75 100 78.5 116.2 81.9 172.0 84.8 77.6 41.1 52.8 66.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 22 78 100 67.3 76.7 91.2 156.5 80.6 75.7 33.4 45.8 56.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 24 76 100 82.5 91.8 66.2 151.3 81.5 72.4 38.8 56.7 65.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 34 66 100 118.8 143.1 79.1 146.1 78.2 73.1 62.4 73.5 98.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 25 75 100 76.0 87.4 81.9 165.3 82.8 75.7 43.3 52.8 69.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 30 70 100 95.4 103.6 88.8 152.2 79.4 73.7 63.1 80.4 87.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 25 75 100 76.9 95.0 71.7 164.5 84.0 76.1 33.9 49.4 70.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 27 73 100 71.1 92.8 63.6 157.7 82.3 76.3 35.1 50.6 65.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 23 77 100 57.2 63.6 73.7 160.2 82.0 76.9 34.1 40.4 54.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 20 80 100 119.2 130.1 89.1 155.8 81.6 76.5 66.3 89.9 111.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 15 85 100 70.9 89.2 83.3 195.5 87.8 81.9 27.9 47.3 53.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 23 77 100 66.1 73.1 72.5 162.3 81.8 76.7 36.1 47.0 57.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 34 66 100 64.6 69.5 56.7 131.6 75.8 67.1 37.0 49.6 59.6 29 Palic 37000G16 0 27 73 100 102.9 117.1 100.5 146.6 80.1 73.3 48.9 65.9 88.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 25 75 100 89.2 112.8 67.5 163.7 83.9 76.3 48.9 55.0 80.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 33 67 100 82.3 89.7 95.0 141.1 79.1 72.5 57.3 70.3 79.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 20 80 100 83.2 103.8 77.2 180.1 87.0 78.4 38.2 57.6 65.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 34 66 100 80.6 98.9 58.9 141.5 79.1 70.8 41.5 50.6 67.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 24 76 100 79.5 90.6 71.2 167.3 82.4 78.0 54.1 64.6 80.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 22 78 100 115.6 146.1 91.8 159.8 82.5 76.5 68.7 82.6 101.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 15 85 100 88.9 99.6 90.6 180.4 86.9 79.0 39.1 57.9 72.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 17 83 100 59.0 64.2 62.7 169.6 82.2 79.8 31.6 43.2 54.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 22 78 100 90.3 116.4 86.1 175.4 85.6 77.9 51.3 67.5 81.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 21 79 100 66.4 77.1 80.9 180.6 84.7 79.1 24.0 39.8 61.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 36 64 100 117.5 135.2 98.8 142.8 78.0 72.5 65.8 85.7 119.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 23 77 100 82.3 101.8 70.3 166.8 84.3 76.7 53.5 61.8 71.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------