***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 12.06.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 07.07.2014.-13.07.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 52 48 0 100 1.6 15.8 7.4 101.3 71.6 52.5 1.1 3.3 13.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 8.5 12.4 7.2 97.6 70.0 54.1 2.3 6.2 9.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 8.8 15.6 8.1 109.4 72.3 53.3 4.1 6.2 11.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 18.9 27.9 8.8 119.1 73.3 57.6 3.1 14.6 21.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 13.4 19.8 9.3 121.9 74.1 57.1 5.2 10.4 16.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 13.1 24.6 12.7 131.0 77.8 58.8 4.9 9.4 17.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 6.7 10.8 7.1 91.2 69.2 52.0 1.8 4.3 10.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 27.7 37.2 10.9 109.0 71.7 56.3 18.1 23.6 35.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 11.6 16.4 9.6 117.6 71.7 54.2 5.0 7.9 14.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 18.6 29.7 11.2 103.7 68.9 53.5 8.8 14.5 29.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 13.0 17.8 7.9 111.2 75.5 57.9 4.4 11.1 14.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 13.7 20.5 7.8 117.7 76.2 58.3 6.2 10.9 17.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 12.0 20.6 8.4 115.7 73.6 57.1 4.4 8.8 16.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 19.4 22.5 9.7 94.1 65.1 49.3 5.9 14.6 22.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 53 47 0 100 2.2 8.3 8.5 125.8 76.2 55.8 1.2 4.6 5.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 53 47 0 100 6.7 21.3 7.7 110.0 74.9 57.1 5.5 13.1 18.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 6.2 4.0 5.8 81.3 61.8 50.8 2.2 3.7 6.7 29 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 21.2 29.0 13.3 100.0 67.6 52.7 8.5 16.5 28.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 12.5 22.4 7.2 99.4 71.0 53.3 3.6 8.1 14.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 20.7 22.1 14.1 106.3 65.6 55.3 7.8 18.0 22.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 53 47 0 100 2.9 16.0 7.8 114.8 72.3 53.2 4.7 6.2 13.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 11.4 11.3 6.1 91.7 64.7 52.7 5.2 8.9 11.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 10.7 18.7 7.3 98.7 68.3 49.8 3.1 7.4 18.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 16.1 21.5 10.9 103.3 69.4 51.6 6.1 10.0 18.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 8.4 14.2 9.1 106.5 70.7 51.6 2.7 5.3 10.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 75 25 100 9.8 16.0 7.4 132.7 74.1 58.8 3.8 7.5 11.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 52 48 0 100 2.6 18.8 8.8 98.0 70.4 50.5 2.4 5.4 16.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 52 48 0 100 3.7 17.8 8.3 115.3 74.5 56.5 2.9 7.8 11.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 24.1 31.8 13.6 99.6 65.1 52.6 17.6 20.1 32.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 8.9 15.4 7.6 100.3 73.0 53.7 2.2 6.3 11.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------