***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 12.06.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 30.06.2014.-06.07.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 54 46 0 100 5.5 25.7 8.7 91.3 69.5 49.0 4.3 11.1 25.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 53 47 0 100 7.2 19.7 9.8 87.3 67.2 50.2 6.0 13.0 19.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 12.9 17.6 9.9 98.6 69.6 54.0 3.1 9.9 17.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 52 48 0 100 3.5 10.8 9.8 106.3 69.3 53.3 4.2 6.1 9.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 7.8 12.9 11.2 118.0 71.3 54.1 0.8 4.9 10.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 7.2 7.9 11.8 83.4 63.5 50.9 2.1 4.8 9.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 56 44 0 100 5.7 22.3 10.2 84.5 66.3 48.6 6.1 12.8 22.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 15.4 18.7 11.1 103.6 66.8 54.3 6.0 11.5 17.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 53 47 0 100 3.9 17.7 12.4 119.8 71.3 53.9 2.7 8.2 13.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 13.7 15.0 13.0 110.0 68.7 54.4 6.9 10.4 14.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 7.5 9.1 9.0 113.2 69.0 53.8 3.3 5.9 8.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 9.0 13.0 8.1 105.9 66.8 53.8 3.7 6.6 12.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 6.7 7.5 9.0 93.1 63.9 51.1 1.3 5.2 7.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 52 48 0 100 6.7 30.9 12.9 91.3 67.1 52.2 5.5 11.5 28.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 54 46 0 100 0.6 5.9 8.2 94.4 66.4 51.6 0.8 1.4 5.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 75 25 100 4.9 6.4 8.7 100.4 65.6 52.7 3.0 3.7 6.4 30 Nis 06700G01 51 49 0 100 2.2 13.7 9.4 84.4 64.6 48.8 1.7 4.2 15.7 29 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 15.5 18.5 15.5 105.1 68.3 54.7 7.8 12.6 17.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 75 25 100 11.9 12.5 9.3 88.4 66.8 51.5 2.4 6.9 11.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 17.9 22.8 14.1 98.4 62.3 54.4 10.1 15.3 24.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 52 48 0 100 6.6 15.8 9.6 107.8 71.4 53.5 6.9 12.0 14.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 10.7 13.8 8.7 83.5 62.6 49.8 3.1 8.1 14.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 53 47 0 100 4.7 17.3 9.5 90.3 69.1 52.1 4.7 8.1 15.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 55 45 0 100 5.8 24.1 14.0 104.8 70.6 54.7 5.8 12.3 21.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 56 44 0 100 3.7 13.9 10.5 97.5 69.4 51.8 3.3 7.1 13.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 81 19 100 6.5 7.0 7.6 109.2 67.2 52.9 1.0 4.3 6.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 54 46 0 100 7.5 25.1 10.4 90.4 68.3 50.0 6.3 13.7 21.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 51 49 0 100 1.7 6.3 9.1 100.3 66.3 53.1 0.8 3.5 6.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 19.3 22.0 14.9 100.7 65.0 54.0 8.2 14.0 23.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 52 48 0 100 5.8 16.0 10.0 90.6 68.6 50.9 5.8 8.4 15.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------