***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 12.06.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.06.2014.-29.06.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 37 63 100 12.2 14.8 15.8 155.4 77.4 62.9 5.2 7.3 11.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 80 20 100 15.1 20.4 13.9 140.5 76.1 59.4 8.3 13.7 16.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 40 60 100 20.0 24.9 17.1 163.3 78.0 64.8 9.4 12.8 21.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 34 66 100 12.8 15.2 20.1 160.2 82.5 63.7 4.8 9.5 12.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 43 57 100 14.2 21.7 19.9 146.8 78.8 63.2 2.8 4.8 14.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 36 64 100 10.7 13.8 28.2 170.2 76.4 68.5 0.9 4.5 8.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 10.6 12.7 12.7 118.0 70.7 55.9 6.2 8.7 11.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 82 18 100 18.9 31.7 20.9 135.2 72.8 63.2 3.8 14.9 23.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 83 17 100 7.9 19.2 19.6 141.2 76.6 62.4 2.7 5.0 10.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 84 16 100 11.2 19.3 22.6 134.8 71.9 62.7 4.2 9.2 14.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 84 16 100 7.0 13.7 18.4 145.3 76.0 64.1 2.7 5.6 9.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 82 18 100 9.2 18.6 16.6 146.1 74.9 64.6 0.5 6.4 15.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 40 60 100 10.0 10.7 20.1 158.3 71.9 66.2 1.3 6.4 8.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 81 19 100 18.3 31.9 20.5 139.6 75.2 63.9 10.3 15.0 23.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 30 70 100 9.1 14.5 19.9 183.1 84.5 67.2 1.0 2.3 6.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 42 58 100 8.3 9.9 20.0 154.2 76.6 66.3 0.8 3.5 8.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 11.5 15.3 11.4 105.9 70.0 54.1 5.2 10.0 14.6 29 Palic 37000G16 0 85 15 100 13.3 16.1 24.7 120.9 67.9 61.5 7.7 11.9 16.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 13.3 17.0 14.9 155.7 79.5 61.6 8.6 12.4 15.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 83 17 100 12.1 18.4 25.3 121.9 69.8 62.0 8.3 10.0 17.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 12.5 24.7 16.9 148.6 78.3 62.1 4.8 9.1 13.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 10.7 16.4 12.8 122.2 73.1 56.9 5.7 8.7 13.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 42 58 100 22.5 31.0 16.4 168.9 80.1 64.4 9.2 14.2 21.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 43 57 100 29.5 27.9 21.4 138.2 72.6 64.1 11.7 19.0 22.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 40 60 100 16.1 20.6 20.9 160.7 78.9 63.5 5.7 11.4 13.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 83 17 100 7.8 14.7 15.2 153.8 74.8 63.9 1.2 6.0 13.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 40 60 100 15.6 20.6 18.4 150.8 76.9 62.0 4.9 8.1 13.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 31 69 100 8.6 12.5 21.0 172.2 83.2 65.4 1.6 3.3 8.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 84 16 100 18.2 21.1 25.1 119.7 67.0 61.7 13.7 16.9 20.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 81 19 100 16.2 23.7 15.2 151.2 77.8 61.5 10.3 14.4 18.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------