***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 12.06.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 16.06.2014.-22.06.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 8 92 100 30.8 43.3 43.9 300.8 92.7 88.0 7.4 11.1 30.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 13 87 100 39.8 54.3 35.0 261.8 90.9 84.7 9.2 11.1 20.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 9 91 100 38.7 70.6 40.9 276.9 91.9 87.0 7.3 10.7 25.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 7 93 100 40.0 60.1 46.6 274.0 92.1 86.1 3.4 11.6 24.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 9 91 100 37.2 54.3 41.6 244.4 87.5 84.1 4.0 15.6 21.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 6 94 100 35.8 45.7 38.6 214.9 86.8 82.9 4.7 13.6 25.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 15 85 100 21.0 49.8 36.3 275.9 91.0 84.5 8.4 10.9 17.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 19 81 100 40.6 49.9 36.2 202.6 84.4 79.8 7.1 16.1 31.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 8 92 100 25.5 55.1 40.3 234.1 87.9 83.4 8.9 15.4 17.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 11 89 100 37.3 48.0 42.1 220.7 86.3 82.5 10.7 19.3 32.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 15 85 100 25.6 47.5 36.3 230.0 85.6 81.9 6.3 14.4 24.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 22 78 100 22.3 30.1 31.1 210.0 83.9 79.9 2.7 9.0 20.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 4 96 100 27.3 35.7 36.3 220.8 86.9 83.4 5.6 15.2 22.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 4 96 100 40.3 59.2 46.1 254.2 90.2 87.4 14.0 20.9 32.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 6 94 100 24.9 42.7 46.8 285.5 90.8 86.2 1.0 4.2 10.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 19 81 100 26.0 35.9 36.2 225.6 86.4 82.6 3.4 11.0 19.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 21 79 100 22.3 26.1 30.1 214.8 87.6 79.1 5.1 12.4 20.6 29 Palic 37000G16 0 9 91 100 40.9 50.5 47.0 233.3 88.9 85.1 5.9 12.8 24.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 10 90 100 29.7 66.8 36.1 260.0 90.3 85.4 5.9 11.9 20.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 11 89 100 23.0 35.5 41.6 219.1 87.6 83.9 7.9 15.4 20.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 8 92 100 30.7 51.6 42.9 268.4 90.8 85.7 6.2 11.7 21.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 18 82 100 19.3 32.8 31.4 221.9 87.2 81.1 7.0 10.1 16.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 4 96 100 38.7 46.1 38.0 254.6 89.2 86.0 6.7 11.8 23.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 5 95 100 45.3 82.1 45.4 252.4 90.7 86.5 12.9 21.7 29.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 5 95 100 35.4 56.1 50.2 280.7 93.4 87.8 5.9 10.6 18.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 9 91 100 27.7 38.0 32.5 223.3 85.6 83.3 2.0 14.4 20.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 6 94 100 38.0 60.5 48.5 295.1 93.4 88.1 10.8 17.0 27.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 9 91 100 20.9 33.6 42.5 259.7 89.2 84.6 1.7 8.0 18.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 7 93 100 50.6 68.9 45.2 228.3 88.7 85.1 10.8 15.5 37.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 9 91 100 26.9 53.2 37.4 279.4 91.8 86.4 6.0 11.3 18.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------