***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 12.06.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 16.06.2014.-13.07.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 72 28 0 100 26.8 26.7 26.9 -1.6 19.1 23.3 27.0 27.2 28.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 68 32 0 100 26.2 26.2 27.1 -1.5 22.5 27.1 26.9 27.1 27.9 30 Becej 27400G00 77 23 0 100 26.3 26.0 26.8 -1.8 18.5 21.2 26.6 27.3 28.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 87 13 0 100 18.8 18.4 24.9 -2.2 9.1 14.6 19.9 20.4 21.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 83 17 0 100 26.4 26.0 25.1 -2.0 12.0 17.3 26.9 27.8 28.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 83 17 0 100 25.3 24.4 23.0 -1.9 10.6 16.7 25.6 26.3 27.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 66 34 0 100 26.2 26.5 27.1 -1.4 25.4 28.4 26.7 27.3 27.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 83 17 0 100 14.5 14.1 23.3 -1.9 12.3 17.3 15.1 15.7 16.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 83 17 0 100 26.1 25.8 25.5 -1.9 13.2 18.2 26.2 27.4 28.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 83 17 0 100 25.8 25.4 24.0 -1.9 13.4 17.9 26.2 26.9 27.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 82 18 0 100 25.9 25.5 24.7 -1.9 13.6 18.4 26.5 27.4 28.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 83 17 0 100 25.4 25.1 24.4 -1.9 11.9 17.1 25.7 26.6 27.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 85 15 0 100 26.5 25.5 24.0 -2.0 10.7 16.5 26.8 27.5 28.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 87 13 0 100 26.1 25.9 24.8 -2.0 13.0 17.2 26.2 27.0 27.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 88 12 0 100 26.8 26.0 25.6 -2.5 7.3 12.1 27.8 28.2 28.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 84 16 0 100 26.9 26.5 24.5 -2.0 11.1 17.0 27.2 28.0 29.2 30 Nis 06700G01 67 33 0 100 25.8 25.7 26.9 -1.3 24.8 29.4 26.3 26.6 27.3 29 Palic 37000G16 83 17 0 100 25.3 24.9 23.2 -1.9 13.3 17.7 25.5 26.2 27.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 71 29 0 100 25.9 25.6 26.9 -1.7 20.6 24.9 26.3 26.7 27.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 84 16 0 100 20.8 20.1 21.1 -2.0 11.8 16.3 21.4 22.0 22.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 83 17 0 100 26.2 25.9 26.3 -2.0 14.4 18.3 26.7 27.5 28.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 73 27 0 100 26.1 26.0 26.6 -1.6 21.7 25.5 26.5 27.0 27.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 77 23 0 100 26.1 26.1 26.4 -1.9 18.3 21.4 26.6 26.8 27.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 84 16 0 100 25.7 25.5 24.8 -1.9 13.7 18.0 26.0 26.3 27.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 83 17 0 100 26.2 25.8 25.3 -1.9 14.2 18.2 26.9 27.3 28.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 85 15 0 100 25.9 25.1 23.9 -2.1 7.8 15.1 26.6 27.3 28.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 75 25 0 100 26.1 26.2 26.1 -1.7 18.1 21.8 26.4 26.7 27.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 87 13 0 100 27.1 26.3 25.2 -2.3 8.5 13.6 27.5 28.6 29.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 83 17 0 100 20.3 19.8 22.2 -1.9 13.0 17.6 20.8 21.3 22.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 68 32 0 100 26.2 26.2 27.1 -1.6 22.2 26.1 26.7 26.9 27.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------