***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 12.06.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 07.07.2014.-13.07.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 55 45 0 100 26.3 26.7 29.0 -0.8 36.7 41.0 26.1 27.5 29.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 55 45 0 100 26.2 27.0 29.3 -0.5 42.2 45.1 26.8 27.3 29.2 30 Becej 27400G00 55 45 0 100 26.4 26.3 28.9 -1.0 35.7 39.2 26.2 27.2 29.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 65 35 0 100 19.2 18.4 27.0 -1.7 25.2 30.8 18.9 21.1 22.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 62 38 0 100 26.6 26.3 27.0 -1.4 28.8 33.3 26.5 28.2 29.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 63 37 0 100 25.1 25.3 24.7 -1.5 25.7 31.6 25.6 26.5 28.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 58 42 0 100 26.4 26.9 29.3 -0.3 45.1 46.5 26.7 27.9 28.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 53 47 0 100 14.5 14.7 25.2 -1.4 33.5 33.8 14.7 15.9 17.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 62 38 0 100 26.3 26.2 27.2 -1.3 31.6 34.8 26.2 27.6 29.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 55 45 0 100 26.3 26.0 25.9 -1.3 33.8 34.9 25.9 27.6 28.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 53 47 0 100 26.2 26.4 26.5 -1.3 33.0 34.3 26.4 27.5 28.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 56 44 0 100 25.8 25.4 26.2 -1.5 30.6 32.8 25.7 27.2 28.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 61 39 0 100 26.4 26.7 25.7 -1.7 25.9 30.6 27.1 27.8 28.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 56 44 0 100 26.1 26.4 26.8 -1.1 34.5 38.5 26.4 27.1 28.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 69 31 0 100 27.5 26.9 27.5 -1.8 22.2 28.6 27.3 29.2 29.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 58 42 0 100 27.1 27.3 26.3 -1.6 27.9 31.9 27.7 28.4 29.7 30 Nis 06700G01 58 42 0 100 25.6 26.8 29.2 -0.2 47.5 47.7 25.9 26.9 28.5 29 Palic 37000G16 52 48 0 100 25.4 25.3 25.1 -1.2 32.9 36.0 25.3 26.6 28.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 55 45 0 100 25.8 26.5 29.2 -0.6 39.8 43.3 26.2 26.8 28.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 55 45 0 100 20.6 21.3 23.0 -1.3 32.1 33.9 21.4 21.8 23.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 61 39 0 100 26.5 26.2 28.2 -1.2 31.9 35.7 26.3 27.9 28.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 57 43 0 100 26.2 27.1 28.9 -0.5 41.9 44.7 26.4 27.6 29.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 55 45 0 100 26.1 26.6 28.7 -0.9 38.8 40.8 26.2 27.1 29.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 54 46 0 100 25.8 26.1 26.8 -1.1 32.9 37.3 26.1 27.0 28.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 60 40 0 100 26.7 26.3 27.3 -1.2 30.2 35.6 26.4 28.4 29.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 69 31 0 100 26.0 26.2 25.8 -1.7 24.1 29.3 26.6 27.4 28.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 57 43 0 100 26.4 26.3 28.1 -0.9 35.9 40.0 26.1 27.7 28.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 65 35 0 100 27.5 26.9 27.2 -1.8 23.8 29.4 27.4 29.1 29.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 52 48 0 100 20.1 21.1 24.0 -1.2 32.2 36.1 21.1 21.6 22.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 56 44 0 100 26.0 26.8 29.4 -0.6 39.9 43.8 26.6 27.0 28.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------