***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 12.06.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 30.06.2014.-06.07.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 56 44 0 100 27.9 28.9 28.3 -0.2 42.7 46.3 28.6 29.5 29.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 51 49 0 100 27.3 28.8 28.6 0.0 48.1 49.8 27.9 28.8 29.3 30 Becej 27400G00 58 42 0 100 27.0 28.5 28.2 -0.4 42.3 44.8 27.7 28.9 30.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 61 39 0 100 19.7 20.3 26.2 -1.1 32.7 36.7 20.3 21.7 23.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 55 45 0 100 27.8 28.2 26.3 -0.7 38.8 41.5 27.8 30.0 31.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 54 46 0 100 25.9 26.5 24.0 -0.9 40.4 38.5 26.1 27.5 29.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 29.1 29.0 28.6 0.2 50.4 51.4 27.6 29.0 29.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 80 20 100 17.2 16.2 24.7 -0.5 41.1 43.5 15.6 16.7 18.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 75 25 100 29.7 27.5 26.7 -0.5 41.1 43.4 27.1 29.3 30.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 28.9 28.0 25.3 -0.5 40.7 43.7 27.0 28.5 29.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 29.5 27.5 25.9 -0.6 40.4 42.9 27.1 29.1 30.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 28.2 27.2 25.7 -0.6 41.4 42.3 26.3 27.7 29.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 75 25 100 29.8 28.2 25.0 -0.9 41.8 39.8 27.4 29.2 30.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 28.9 28.2 26.3 -0.4 43.8 45.3 27.6 28.6 29.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 68 32 0 100 27.6 26.9 26.5 -1.4 24.8 32.3 28.0 29.5 31.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 51 49 0 100 28.0 28.4 25.6 -0.8 39.7 40.2 27.9 29.9 31.6 30 Nis 06700G01 52 48 0 100 26.5 28.3 28.4 0.3 52.1 52.7 27.3 28.1 28.8 29 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 28.5 26.9 24.6 -0.4 41.2 44.8 26.0 28.2 29.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 53 47 0 100 26.7 28.2 28.5 -0.1 46.3 48.1 27.4 28.3 28.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 80 20 100 23.8 22.4 22.6 -0.4 42.0 45.0 21.9 23.4 24.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 55 45 0 100 27.1 28.2 27.5 -0.6 39.9 43.3 27.6 28.9 30.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 52 48 0 100 26.9 28.7 28.2 0.1 49.5 50.5 28.1 28.7 29.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 28.9 28.5 27.9 -0.3 44.2 46.1 27.1 28.6 29.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 53 47 0 100 26.5 27.6 26.3 -0.4 42.0 44.6 26.9 28.3 29.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 59 41 0 100 27.0 27.9 26.5 -0.6 36.9 42.2 27.5 28.8 30.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 54 46 0 100 27.1 27.2 25.1 -0.9 39.6 38.4 26.9 28.5 29.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 55 45 0 100 27.2 27.9 27.4 -0.3 42.1 45.8 27.5 28.9 29.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 63 37 0 100 27.3 27.2 26.4 -1.2 29.3 34.6 27.8 29.6 31.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 23.8 21.9 23.6 -0.3 42.6 45.7 21.3 23.5 24.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 52 48 0 100 27.2 28.6 28.6 -0.1 46.8 48.4 27.4 28.8 29.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------