***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 12.06.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.06.2014.-29.06.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 78 22 0 100 25.1 24.8 26.0 -2.5 16.8 23.8 26.1 27.3 29.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 82 18 0 100 24.9 24.7 26.1 -2.4 19.2 24.4 26.0 26.6 28.7 30 Becej 27400G00 78 22 0 100 24.8 24.0 25.9 -2.7 15.7 22.7 25.5 27.2 28.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 84 16 0 100 17.5 17.0 24.3 -2.9 14.3 21.2 18.5 19.8 21.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 77 23 0 100 25.1 24.4 24.3 -2.8 16.5 23.2 26.3 27.6 29.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 69 31 0 100 24.3 23.6 22.5 -2.5 19.0 26.3 25.4 26.6 27.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 79 21 0 100 24.8 24.6 26.1 -2.2 21.6 25.3 25.7 27.0 28.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 71 29 0 100 13.7 13.1 22.8 -2.7 17.8 25.1 13.9 16.0 17.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 79 21 0 100 24.6 24.0 24.5 -2.7 16.6 23.6 25.1 27.0 28.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 73 27 0 100 24.5 23.9 23.3 -2.7 17.0 24.4 24.9 26.7 28.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 75 25 0 100 24.7 24.0 23.9 -2.6 17.3 24.7 25.4 26.7 28.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 71 29 0 100 23.8 23.4 23.8 -2.7 18.3 25.0 24.8 25.7 27.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 71 29 0 100 25.2 24.8 23.2 -2.7 19.1 24.6 26.0 27.1 29.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 79 21 0 100 24.2 23.7 24.0 -2.8 17.6 22.5 25.6 26.9 28.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 85 15 0 100 25.8 25.3 24.8 -3.1 14.3 19.2 27.1 28.4 29.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 76 24 0 100 25.5 25.0 23.8 -2.7 18.6 24.5 26.5 27.7 29.6 30 Nis 06700G01 82 18 0 100 23.8 24.7 25.9 -2.2 24.0 26.6 25.4 26.4 28.2 29 Palic 37000G16 72 28 0 100 23.6 22.6 22.5 -2.7 17.5 24.6 24.4 26.3 27.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 80 20 0 100 24.2 23.7 26.0 -2.6 17.3 23.5 25.6 26.6 28.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 73 27 0 100 19.8 19.0 20.6 -2.7 18.8 25.2 20.3 22.4 24.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 79 21 0 100 24.8 24.1 25.3 -2.7 16.2 22.8 25.7 27.3 29.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 79 21 0 100 24.6 24.6 25.7 -2.4 21.4 25.3 26.0 26.9 28.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 80 20 0 100 24.6 24.1 25.5 -2.8 16.8 22.6 25.4 26.8 28.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 75 25 0 100 24.0 23.5 24.0 -2.8 17.1 23.3 25.2 26.5 28.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 84 16 0 100 24.9 24.3 24.4 -2.7 15.2 21.5 25.7 27.1 28.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 73 27 0 100 25.3 25.1 23.3 -2.7 19.4 24.8 26.0 27.3 29.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 80 20 0 100 24.4 23.7 25.1 -2.5 16.4 23.0 25.4 27.2 28.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 83 17 0 100 26.2 25.6 24.6 -3.0 15.8 21.2 26.9 28.8 29.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 70 30 0 100 19.1 18.2 21.5 -2.7 18.9 25.2 19.6 22.3 23.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 79 21 0 100 24.7 24.6 26.2 -2.5 17.7 23.8 25.6 27.0 28.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------