***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 12.06.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 16.06.2014.-22.06.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 88 12 0 100 24.9 24.7 24.3 -3.0 16.6 17.4 26.5 27.0 27.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 81 19 0 100 23.8 23.0 24.2 -3.2 15.6 17.3 25.6 26.8 27.4 30 Becej 27400G00 86 14 0 100 23.8 23.1 24.1 -3.3 15.2 16.8 25.0 26.9 27.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 94 6 0 100 17.3 16.9 22.0 -3.3 12.0 13.9 18.8 19.6 20.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 88 12 0 100 24.1 23.8 22.8 -3.0 17.0 17.9 25.8 27.1 27.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 90 10 0 100 23.2 23.0 20.6 -2.9 15.9 17.7 24.0 25.2 26.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 84 16 0 100 23.4 22.7 24.2 -3.0 15.2 17.7 25.0 26.6 27.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 88 12 0 100 12.6 12.1 20.7 -3.2 14.9 16.9 13.9 14.8 15.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 85 15 0 100 23.7 23.6 23.6 -3.0 18.6 18.5 24.9 26.7 27.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 86 14 0 100 24.0 23.8 21.6 -3.2 16.6 17.7 25.3 26.2 26.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 86 14 0 100 24.0 23.6 22.6 -2.9 17.3 18.7 25.3 26.5 27.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 86 14 0 100 23.7 23.4 21.9 -3.0 16.4 18.1 24.7 25.3 27.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 86 14 0 100 24.4 24.1 22.0 -2.8 17.5 19.5 25.3 26.2 28.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 87 13 0 100 23.0 22.0 22.1 -3.8 11.4 13.4 25.0 26.3 27.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 95 5 0 100 25.0 22.3 23.5 -3.6 7.7 11.0 26.4 27.6 28.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 86 14 0 100 24.7 24.7 22.4 -2.9 17.6 18.7 26.2 27.0 28.9 30 Nis 06700G01 84 16 0 100 23.0 22.1 23.9 -3.1 14.9 17.0 25.0 26.5 27.2 29 Palic 37000G16 84 16 0 100 23.1 22.4 20.5 -3.4 15.3 16.7 24.2 25.8 26.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 82 18 0 100 23.3 22.1 24.0 -3.3 14.3 16.7 24.9 26.3 27.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 88 12 0 100 18.6 17.6 18.3 -3.5 11.6 14.6 20.0 21.2 22.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 89 11 0 100 23.7 23.4 24.0 -3.3 16.3 17.0 25.4 26.8 27.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 86 14 0 100 23.0 21.8 23.5 -3.4 12.6 14.9 24.8 27.1 27.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 85 15 0 100 23.3 21.8 23.6 -3.5 12.1 15.3 25.3 26.6 27.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 82 18 0 100 23.2 22.1 22.3 -3.5 14.2 16.1 24.9 25.9 26.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 92 8 0 100 23.8 23.3 22.9 -3.2 14.7 16.0 25.8 26.9 27.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 85 15 0 100 24.4 24.1 21.4 -2.9 15.6 18.4 25.0 25.9 27.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 89 11 0 100 23.7 23.3 23.6 -3.1 15.6 16.7 25.1 26.5 27.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 93 7 0 100 25.1 22.8 22.8 -3.3 10.6 13.3 26.2 27.9 28.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 84 16 0 100 18.4 17.4 19.6 -3.4 14.3 16.1 19.5 21.3 21.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 81 19 0 100 23.9 23.6 24.4 -3.1 16.9 17.7 25.6 26.6 27.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------