***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 12.06.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 16.06.2014.-13.07.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 69 31 0 100 14.6 14.4 16.9 -0.9 21.1 27.0 15.0 15.2 15.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 69 31 0 100 14.1 13.9 17.0 -0.9 26.5 29.7 14.2 15.2 15.5 30 Becej 27400G00 72 28 0 100 15.9 15.7 16.7 -1.1 19.8 24.6 16.3 16.7 17.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 85 15 0 100 11.1 10.6 14.7 -1.3 12.8 18.3 11.4 12.0 12.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 81 19 0 100 12.7 12.8 14.7 -1.1 19.0 21.9 13.3 13.7 14.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 88 12 0 100 11.8 11.7 13.0 -1.1 18.1 21.2 12.3 12.6 12.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 64 36 0 100 14.3 14.7 17.1 -0.8 28.3 31.0 14.8 15.1 15.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 83 17 0 100 6.8 6.7 12.7 -1.1 20.2 22.3 7.1 7.7 8.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 77 23 0 100 14.0 14.0 15.1 -1.0 20.3 23.5 14.3 14.7 15.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 80 20 0 100 14.0 14.0 13.4 -1.0 21.1 23.5 14.3 14.7 15.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 81 19 0 100 13.8 13.8 14.3 -1.0 22.2 23.8 14.2 14.7 15.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 85 15 0 100 11.5 11.9 13.7 -1.1 19.8 21.5 12.1 12.5 12.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 92 8 0 100 13.0 13.1 13.5 -1.0 18.7 21.1 13.7 14.0 14.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 83 17 0 100 14.4 14.5 14.9 -1.1 20.2 21.4 15.1 15.4 15.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 86 14 0 100 15.0 14.8 15.4 -1.4 12.5 16.1 15.3 15.7 16.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 83 17 0 100 14.1 14.0 14.2 -1.0 19.9 21.9 14.3 15.0 15.3 30 Nis 06700G01 61 39 0 100 14.8 15.0 16.7 -0.8 28.8 31.7 15.1 15.5 15.8 29 Palic 37000G16 76 24 0 100 12.5 12.7 12.6 -1.0 20.4 23.5 13.0 13.3 13.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 71 29 0 100 14.3 14.4 16.8 -1.0 24.2 27.8 14.6 14.9 15.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 74 26 0 100 8.2 8.3 10.9 -1.0 19.1 24.0 8.9 9.2 9.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 74 26 0 100 14.0 13.7 16.0 -1.1 17.6 22.8 14.3 14.9 15.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 71 29 0 100 13.9 14.0 16.5 -0.9 26.2 28.8 14.2 14.7 14.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 76 24 0 100 13.7 13.9 16.4 -1.1 20.1 24.5 14.1 14.4 14.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 78 22 0 100 14.1 14.0 14.6 -1.1 19.0 22.2 14.4 15.1 15.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 82 18 0 100 13.7 13.7 15.3 -1.0 18.1 23.0 14.3 14.5 15.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 91 9 0 100 12.9 12.8 13.3 -1.1 16.7 18.8 13.2 13.6 13.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 75 25 0 100 13.5 13.4 16.1 -0.9 21.3 26.1 14.1 14.5 14.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 86 14 0 100 13.0 12.8 15.1 -1.4 14.6 17.1 13.4 13.8 14.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 73 27 0 100 11.0 11.0 12.1 -1.0 21.7 24.2 11.4 11.5 12.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 69 31 0 100 14.5 14.5 17.1 -0.9 25.3 28.7 14.8 15.2 15.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------