***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 12.06.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 07.07.2014.-13.07.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 15.5 14.8 18.3 -0.3 43.4 44.8 14.7 15.1 16.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 51 49 0 100 13.6 14.6 18.5 -0.2 44.9 46.8 14.1 14.7 15.9 30 Becej 27400G00 52 48 0 100 15.6 16.0 18.1 -0.5 38.0 41.5 16.0 16.6 17.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 58 42 0 100 10.6 11.1 16.2 -0.9 32.4 35.5 11.1 11.6 13.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 56 44 0 100 12.7 12.9 16.0 -0.7 33.7 39.1 12.9 14.0 14.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 57 43 0 100 11.4 11.9 14.6 -0.6 35.8 40.1 11.9 12.5 13.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 15.5 15.0 18.7 -0.1 46.6 48.2 14.4 15.2 16.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 58 42 0 100 6.5 7.1 14.2 -0.6 36.4 39.9 6.9 7.7 8.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 55 45 0 100 13.9 14.4 16.2 -0.6 34.9 39.7 14.3 15.0 15.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 56 44 0 100 13.8 14.2 14.7 -0.6 37.0 40.9 14.0 14.8 15.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 53 47 0 100 13.9 14.1 15.7 -0.5 37.6 42.0 13.9 14.9 15.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 62 38 0 100 11.2 11.9 15.2 -0.6 33.7 39.1 11.8 12.6 13.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 69 31 0 100 12.6 12.9 14.8 -0.6 33.7 38.8 12.8 14.3 15.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 56 44 0 100 14.5 14.8 16.2 -0.6 37.5 41.1 14.7 15.5 16.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 62 38 0 100 15.3 15.8 16.6 -1.1 29.8 32.1 15.9 16.2 16.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 63 37 0 100 13.6 14.5 15.6 -0.6 34.6 39.6 14.4 15.3 16.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 15.9 15.4 18.2 0.0 49.4 49.8 14.7 15.4 16.1 29 Palic 37000G16 59 41 0 100 12.1 12.7 14.0 -0.5 40.9 41.8 11.7 13.4 14.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 52 48 0 100 13.8 14.6 18.3 -0.3 42.4 44.9 14.1 14.9 15.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 57 43 0 100 7.6 9.3 12.4 -0.5 39.7 41.4 8.4 9.6 10.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 52 48 0 100 13.6 13.7 17.3 -0.6 34.5 39.5 13.6 14.6 15.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 54 46 0 100 13.8 14.4 18.0 -0.2 43.7 46.9 14.1 14.9 15.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 53 47 0 100 13.5 14.0 17.8 -0.5 38.1 42.2 13.5 14.6 15.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 57 43 0 100 14.3 14.6 16.0 -0.6 37.7 40.5 14.5 15.5 16.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 15.2 14.3 16.6 -0.5 38.4 41.6 14.0 14.9 15.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 66 34 0 100 12.3 12.6 14.6 -0.8 29.3 33.7 12.8 13.6 14.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 14.8 14.3 17.5 -0.3 44.1 45.0 13.5 14.5 15.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 62 38 0 100 12.9 13.1 16.5 -1.0 31.2 33.9 13.4 14.1 14.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 56 44 0 100 10.7 11.5 13.5 -0.4 42.3 43.4 11.3 11.9 12.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 15.6 14.9 18.6 -0.3 43.5 45.6 14.2 15.2 16.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------