***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 12.06.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.06.2014.-29.06.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 85 15 0 100 13.5 13.4 15.9 -2.0 13.4 20.4 14.3 14.6 15.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 84 16 0 100 12.8 12.2 16.0 -2.1 14.4 19.6 14.0 14.6 15.2 30 Becej 27400G00 83 17 0 100 14.9 14.6 15.7 -2.1 13.3 19.3 15.2 16.1 16.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 80 20 0 100 9.5 9.0 13.9 -2.2 12.2 18.6 10.2 11.5 12.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 79 21 0 100 11.6 11.2 13.8 -2.0 14.7 21.1 12.3 13.2 14.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 72 28 0 100 11.1 10.6 12.3 -1.7 15.8 23.7 11.6 12.3 12.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 83 17 0 100 13.2 12.8 16.0 -2.0 14.1 20.1 14.4 14.6 15.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 79 21 0 100 6.2 5.9 12.0 -1.8 16.3 22.8 6.5 7.6 8.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 78 22 0 100 13.3 13.0 14.1 -1.9 14.6 21.8 13.6 14.4 14.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 81 19 0 100 13.4 13.1 12.6 -1.8 15.3 22.2 13.9 14.2 14.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 79 21 0 100 13.3 12.9 13.5 -1.8 15.8 22.9 13.5 14.5 14.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 79 21 0 100 10.9 10.5 13.0 -1.8 16.4 22.0 11.7 12.4 12.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 78 22 0 100 12.0 11.5 12.7 -1.8 15.2 21.6 13.1 13.5 14.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 85 15 0 100 13.6 13.1 13.9 -2.1 11.2 19.0 14.6 14.9 15.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 86 14 0 100 14.3 13.3 14.3 -2.4 11.1 16.9 14.8 15.1 16.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 78 22 0 100 13.2 12.9 13.3 -1.8 16.5 22.1 13.6 14.3 15.1 30 Nis 06700G01 81 19 0 100 13.8 13.6 15.7 -1.9 16.7 21.0 14.7 15.0 15.4 29 Palic 37000G16 84 16 0 100 11.6 11.3 11.8 -1.9 16.0 21.5 12.4 13.2 13.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 84 16 0 100 13.0 12.7 15.8 -2.1 14.3 19.0 13.9 14.4 15.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 79 21 0 100 7.8 7.4 10.3 -1.8 16.4 23.3 8.4 9.1 9.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 79 21 0 100 13.3 13.0 15.0 -2.0 13.8 20.7 13.4 14.4 14.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 85 15 0 100 13.0 12.9 15.5 -2.0 14.4 19.5 13.7 14.0 14.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 85 15 0 100 12.7 12.1 15.4 -2.2 12.8 18.3 13.4 14.1 14.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 84 16 0 100 12.8 12.3 13.7 -2.0 15.5 20.1 14.2 14.7 15.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 80 20 0 100 13.0 12.4 14.3 -2.0 12.8 19.5 13.2 14.5 15.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 83 17 0 100 11.6 11.4 12.8 -1.8 17.8 23.0 12.7 13.2 13.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 82 18 0 100 12.4 12.0 15.1 -2.0 13.2 19.8 13.1 13.9 15.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 83 17 0 100 11.8 11.3 14.2 -2.2 12.6 18.5 12.8 13.3 14.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 82 18 0 100 10.0 9.6 11.3 -1.8 15.5 21.8 10.6 11.3 12.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 84 16 0 100 13.1 12.7 16.0 -2.1 13.8 19.5 14.0 14.6 15.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------