***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 12.06.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 16.06.2014.-22.06.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 64 36 0 100 13.5 13.9 15.8 -1.0 31.4 34.9 14.0 14.4 15.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 70 30 0 100 12.6 12.4 15.6 -1.2 28.0 31.5 12.8 14.4 15.0 30 Becej 27400G00 68 32 0 100 15.0 14.8 15.6 -1.2 28.9 31.5 14.9 16.1 16.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 58 42 0 100 10.1 9.7 13.6 -1.1 31.4 31.3 9.9 11.3 11.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 56 44 0 100 11.5 12.2 14.0 -0.9 33.6 34.1 12.2 12.8 13.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 76 24 0 100 10.2 11.0 11.5 -1.3 28.3 27.5 11.2 11.9 12.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 69 31 0 100 13.0 13.0 15.8 -1.1 29.5 32.0 13.2 14.5 15.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 67 33 0 100 5.1 5.0 11.4 -1.3 29.5 30.7 5.1 6.7 7.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 14.5 13.4 14.5 -0.8 35.3 36.9 13.3 14.2 15.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 58 42 0 100 12.9 13.1 12.4 -1.0 32.2 34.2 13.1 14.2 14.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 55 45 0 100 12.7 13.1 13.3 -1.0 32.8 33.0 13.1 14.1 15.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 66 34 0 100 10.2 10.8 12.2 -1.2 30.5 30.9 11.0 11.7 13.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 62 38 0 100 11.9 12.5 12.5 -0.9 30.7 32.6 12.7 13.4 13.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 76 24 0 100 12.8 13.0 13.7 -1.4 25.3 26.3 13.7 14.6 15.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 56 44 0 100 14.0 13.6 15.2 -0.8 31.0 34.1 13.9 15.1 16.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 55 45 0 100 13.0 13.2 13.2 -1.0 32.5 32.2 13.3 14.2 15.2 30 Nis 06700G01 72 28 0 100 13.2 13.2 15.2 -1.3 26.8 29.1 13.6 14.6 15.3 29 Palic 37000G16 60 40 0 100 11.0 11.5 11.4 -1.1 31.2 32.1 11.7 12.7 13.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 69 31 0 100 12.9 13.1 15.5 -1.2 27.6 30.8 13.3 14.3 14.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 61 39 0 100 6.9 7.2 9.3 -1.2 28.9 31.4 7.4 8.3 9.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 64 36 0 100 12.7 13.1 15.3 -1.1 29.9 32.6 13.2 13.9 14.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 71 29 0 100 12.5 12.5 15.2 -1.3 27.5 28.6 12.9 13.6 14.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 71 29 0 100 12.3 12.3 15.2 -1.3 26.1 28.4 12.5 13.8 14.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 70 30 0 100 12.8 12.5 13.6 -1.3 28.2 28.7 13.1 14.3 15.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 56 44 0 100 12.2 12.6 14.6 -1.0 32.3 33.6 12.6 13.4 14.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 61 39 0 100 11.5 11.8 12.0 -1.1 31.7 32.3 11.9 12.8 13.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 57 43 0 100 12.1 12.4 15.2 -0.9 32.9 35.0 12.4 12.8 14.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 57 43 0 100 11.9 12.0 14.3 -1.0 30.0 31.2 12.1 12.9 13.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 64 36 0 100 9.6 9.3 10.7 -1.2 29.1 29.8 9.4 10.9 11.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 67 33 0 100 13.1 13.2 15.9 -1.1 29.1 32.5 13.4 14.5 14.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------