***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 11.06.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 15.06.2020.-12.07.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 41 59 100 72.2 77.6 73.5 143.5 75.1 66.7 34.0 52.8 57.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 42 58 100 69.9 80.3 66.4 142.2 77.6 67.0 43.9 54.3 64.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 36 64 100 79.4 92.8 74.3 145.5 76.6 67.0 46.1 53.4 73.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 66.3 95.0 64.4 129.6 72.2 62.7 41.4 57.1 83.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 37 63 100 68.9 81.5 69.9 143.8 78.6 67.1 37.8 47.8 65.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 38 62 100 58.8 57.2 71.9 127.7 70.4 65.4 29.7 44.1 55.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 38 62 100 78.3 89.1 64.8 137.1 75.1 66.6 37.4 58.0 69.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 40 60 100 111.1 130.2 80.0 136.1 76.0 66.9 55.4 72.1 92.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 38 62 100 67.8 81.2 78.6 150.4 81.2 69.4 43.5 52.3 70.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 39 61 100 93.5 102.2 88.1 142.5 79.0 68.5 63.2 82.0 88.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 39 61 100 66.7 77.2 67.2 140.8 77.5 67.5 34.8 50.1 69.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 38 62 100 67.9 75.9 63.8 137.7 75.9 67.1 35.6 50.6 65.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 37 63 100 54.6 59.9 67.1 142.8 74.9 68.5 29.6 41.5 54.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 89.0 121.2 95.4 140.8 77.5 65.9 67.4 80.5 103.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 48.5 59.6 52.8 123.7 70.4 59.6 22.9 41.6 56.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 40 60 100 61.6 69.7 63.3 136.5 72.7 66.3 35.1 44.3 55.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 35 65 100 65.1 72.5 64.8 137.2 75.8 65.1 37.0 50.6 59.8 29 Palic 37000G16 0 41 59 100 91.4 111.5 95.8 137.4 77.2 67.0 48.1 60.2 88.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 44 56 100 80.8 99.2 68.5 142.5 77.6 66.5 49.3 55.0 80.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 37 63 100 78.9 80.9 89.4 129.1 73.2 65.4 57.2 62.5 71.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 39 61 100 73.6 84.5 76.4 148.7 78.4 68.1 38.6 56.6 63.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 40 60 100 68.5 72.0 63.7 130.9 73.6 62.7 40.2 52.5 64.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 40 60 100 77.2 85.4 73.4 143.1 77.2 66.4 54.6 64.4 80.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 40 60 100 113.6 140.8 90.1 146.5 78.6 67.9 69.3 81.2 100.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 82 18 100 60.6 89.2 76.4 137.8 74.0 64.7 41.2 53.6 72.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 82 18 100 46.0 54.3 49.4 123.5 70.1 62.5 27.7 43.2 53.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 83 17 100 71.3 81.0 77.6 138.6 73.7 65.5 51.3 68.6 79.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 80 20 100 47.4 67.9 60.6 128.6 71.8 62.1 28.4 41.0 57.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 42 58 100 110.0 125.1 96.9 133.4 75.0 65.8 60.6 83.1 120.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 40 60 100 73.4 77.9 67.4 142.2 76.8 67.0 56.2 62.0 71.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------