***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 11.06.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 06.07.2020.-12.07.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 54 46 0 100 2.4 8.9 11.2 107.2 66.5 50.4 2.1 4.7 8.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 75 25 100 8.4 14.1 11.2 112.9 69.7 54.2 2.3 5.2 11.8 30 Becej 27400G00 57 43 0 100 3.4 15.2 10.8 101.9 67.4 50.8 5.4 7.6 14.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 52 48 0 100 4.8 15.0 8.6 83.8 63.9 48.6 6.1 9.8 15.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 57 43 0 100 3.5 13.4 9.6 98.9 68.1 49.4 4.0 7.6 12.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 75 25 100 11.4 10.6 10.4 90.7 62.8 48.4 4.5 8.6 11.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 8.3 10.1 10.7 106.3 66.7 54.0 1.2 5.9 9.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 57 43 0 100 9.9 28.6 11.4 94.8 63.4 48.9 12.3 19.3 30.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 55 45 0 100 3.6 17.4 10.8 100.7 67.8 50.1 5.0 7.8 16.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 55 45 0 100 7.9 24.6 12.4 94.9 65.1 49.7 8.3 12.7 25.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 54 46 0 100 5.4 14.8 8.1 91.2 65.9 49.7 4.4 10.1 14.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 58 42 0 100 4.6 14.4 8.0 87.3 63.7 47.1 4.9 10.2 15.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 55 45 0 100 3.3 14.0 8.5 91.5 67.0 49.7 3.0 6.4 13.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 17.3 20.0 14.1 100.3 66.3 49.9 5.7 11.8 19.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 5.7 6.6 7.4 85.1 67.7 49.0 1.8 4.1 6.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 55 45 0 100 5.3 14.6 7.6 84.9 64.3 48.0 4.4 10.2 15.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 80 20 100 6.0 7.1 11.6 109.2 67.3 53.9 1.0 3.1 6.7 29 Palic 37000G16 51 49 0 100 11.2 26.7 14.0 91.7 63.5 49.8 9.5 19.0 27.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 52 48 0 100 4.5 18.6 11.3 112.9 70.6 53.2 2.3 8.4 12.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 52 48 0 100 9.4 19.0 14.0 92.9 58.5 48.1 8.3 16.6 22.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 52 48 0 100 4.2 13.4 10.7 99.0 69.6 50.6 4.3 7.3 12.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 11.0 14.8 11.8 109.3 67.9 53.6 2.7 8.9 13.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 52 48 0 100 4.4 17.3 11.3 108.7 69.9 51.5 3.5 8.4 15.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 54 46 0 100 6.5 21.4 12.3 94.8 65.5 49.5 5.0 12.1 21.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 53 47 0 100 2.7 10.5 12.2 103.2 67.8 51.0 3.9 5.8 10.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 75 25 100 9.6 10.6 6.3 84.5 64.9 49.2 2.8 6.8 11.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 52 48 0 100 3.7 13.6 12.5 105.9 66.7 51.5 4.4 6.9 13.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 75 25 100 9.3 10.2 7.6 80.5 63.5 48.2 2.0 6.4 10.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 53 47 0 100 14.9 29.2 14.7 93.2 62.8 49.8 15.2 23.3 30.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 56 44 0 100 2.4 10.9 10.6 107.1 67.3 52.1 1.9 5.1 10.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------