***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 11.06.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 29.06.2020.-05.07.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 15.2 25.8 12.8 132.5 72.6 58.4 4.6 11.1 25.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 41 59 100 19.1 22.6 12.9 141.9 74.7 61.3 4.8 12.3 19.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 39 61 100 15.7 18.1 15.0 150.1 74.1 60.7 3.1 9.5 14.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 75 25 100 8.0 11.2 12.5 130.0 73.0 55.8 3.1 5.2 9.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 11.3 15.5 12.4 132.5 75.3 56.7 3.5 9.1 13.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 7.4 11.5 13.6 121.9 69.3 54.3 2.6 4.9 9.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 40 60 100 21.8 18.5 12.4 137.4 72.5 60.6 4.2 11.9 16.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 53 47 0 100 8.6 38.0 14.3 127.0 70.4 57.6 7.6 14.8 25.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 75 25 100 9.0 18.2 14.5 141.0 75.0 57.5 2.6 5.2 9.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 52 48 0 100 7.9 16.1 16.2 131.8 71.6 57.7 8.7 11.1 14.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 51 49 0 100 3.7 16.0 11.1 131.4 75.0 57.2 3.7 6.6 9.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 53 47 0 100 5.2 19.8 11.4 136.8 74.4 57.4 6.1 10.1 15.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 7.2 9.6 11.8 139.4 72.5 58.5 3.0 6.3 7.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 37 63 100 31.0 38.6 20.8 150.2 76.0 60.8 4.4 11.1 19.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 51 49 0 100 0.7 15.6 9.8 123.6 73.3 51.1 0.4 1.4 5.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 5.8 11.0 11.8 140.2 74.9 57.6 3.5 3.8 6.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 8.9 25.6 13.9 149.8 76.6 62.0 2.3 4.2 17.1 29 Palic 37000G16 0 75 25 100 18.3 26.1 19.7 133.9 73.1 57.4 9.0 14.9 23.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 40 60 100 20.7 22.5 13.9 145.8 74.8 60.8 2.7 5.8 10.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 21.5 27.7 17.2 123.1 70.2 58.3 10.6 18.2 26.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 12.6 17.1 14.3 147.3 75.3 60.2 2.3 10.8 15.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 9.9 17.3 14.3 135.6 74.5 59.9 3.9 7.8 16.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 36 64 100 16.8 20.6 16.1 159.6 76.6 61.4 5.6 8.1 17.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 15.1 32.7 19.6 154.3 77.3 60.0 5.0 9.2 20.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 8.6 13.3 12.9 123.0 69.7 55.4 4.5 6.4 9.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 8.4 16.4 8.5 128.5 74.6 58.7 2.4 5.9 8.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 13.1 19.8 13.7 127.4 69.6 56.7 6.3 9.3 17.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 53 47 0 100 1.2 11.1 11.9 132.0 73.5 53.3 1.1 2.5 5.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 22.0 34.2 19.9 130.7 71.3 58.2 9.2 16.7 31.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 13.8 23.6 12.6 137.9 73.9 59.7 7.3 9.1 16.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------