***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 11.06.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 22.06.2020.-28.06.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 56 44 0 100 4.8 13.5 17.8 111.0 67.6 52.4 5.8 9.1 13.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 14.8 19.0 17.3 113.2 71.4 53.8 7.3 13.1 17.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 15.7 25.1 21.1 130.5 73.1 57.0 6.7 12.3 23.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 12.5 17.4 17.4 116.6 70.0 56.4 3.2 10.2 14.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 10.3 19.4 19.9 138.6 73.9 58.7 2.0 7.2 14.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 5.7 8.1 19.7 115.4 69.1 56.3 0.6 2.8 6.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 12.0 15.2 17.0 109.8 67.7 54.5 7.1 10.0 13.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 13.4 24.1 21.4 132.7 73.1 57.6 2.5 9.6 21.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 8.6 21.0 22.7 143.3 77.1 59.1 1.6 5.2 12.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 11.8 21.3 24.2 141.4 74.9 58.8 3.5 8.7 17.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 80 20 100 6.6 20.2 21.5 145.8 78.2 61.2 1.9 3.3 8.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 8.6 15.7 19.0 136.4 76.4 58.2 0.7 5.1 8.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 80 20 100 7.0 12.3 20.5 145.6 76.1 60.2 1.7 5.0 7.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 19.8 27.0 23.5 113.6 69.3 54.0 10.8 14.6 25.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 81 19 100 4.8 8.9 14.0 105.0 67.4 54.3 1.1 2.8 8.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 6.7 11.3 19.4 136.2 73.1 58.6 0.9 4.2 9.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 14.3 15.2 16.0 108.3 69.6 51.7 6.2 11.7 14.6 29 Palic 37000G16 0 75 25 100 11.8 15.4 24.2 125.0 68.0 55.3 4.5 9.8 14.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 15.2 19.3 18.3 117.6 71.7 53.9 8.7 12.9 16.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 75 25 100 12.8 16.8 23.1 121.9 69.4 55.3 4.4 10.6 16.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 13.7 23.2 21.4 135.0 73.3 57.2 4.5 9.6 16.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 51 49 0 100 7.0 15.9 16.0 107.8 68.2 50.9 6.2 11.3 14.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 18.5 28.2 20.3 123.9 72.9 55.4 8.2 14.5 22.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 25.0 35.3 23.6 126.8 70.3 56.3 8.5 19.7 34.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 13.4 14.4 18.1 106.2 64.2 50.2 7.2 10.9 14.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 81 19 100 8.3 19.0 18.2 144.8 77.8 63.7 0.8 5.8 11.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 51 49 0 100 5.8 16.8 18.5 106.1 65.8 51.3 6.3 10.6 16.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 5.2 7.6 15.4 110.2 68.7 54.8 1.8 3.7 7.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 17.4 19.4 25.8 123.8 68.9 56.5 7.7 14.7 18.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 14.4 17.3 18.3 118.3 71.6 55.5 11.3 13.1 16.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------