***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 11.06.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 15.06.2020.-21.06.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 23 77 100 27.0 35.4 31.6 210.7 86.3 78.3 5.2 8.6 21.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 33 67 100 29.2 45.4 25.1 201.3 83.2 74.1 9.2 10.7 20.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 31 69 100 29.6 43.8 27.5 191.4 82.2 74.5 5.0 9.5 29.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 25 75 100 33.9 44.4 25.8 173.9 80.5 73.6 3.8 10.5 23.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 23 77 100 33.9 42.2 27.9 184.2 83.2 76.4 3.4 16.0 23.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 22 78 100 27.6 33.7 28.3 169.0 81.8 76.0 6.1 16.3 20.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 28 72 100 22.8 38.9 24.6 194.8 82.2 74.4 7.6 10.1 15.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 28 72 100 34.0 42.9 32.9 168.1 80.6 73.7 9.6 16.3 24.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 19 81 100 25.7 36.9 30.6 198.7 85.3 77.6 8.6 15.9 18.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 25 75 100 34.5 46.7 35.3 180.8 82.8 75.0 12.2 17.9 35.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 31 69 100 24.1 28.8 26.5 168.1 80.1 74.0 6.0 16.5 24.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 28 72 100 20.5 25.9 25.5 168.3 81.2 74.4 2.7 10.1 17.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 29 71 100 22.5 28.6 26.3 173.7 82.2 73.7 6.0 13.2 25.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 35 65 100 32.3 44.5 37.1 192.8 84.3 73.7 14.0 20.9 28.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 30 70 100 18.2 26.0 21.5 168.5 79.9 71.6 1.8 4.7 11.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 28 72 100 23.6 29.8 24.5 165.6 79.2 73.2 6.5 12.4 16.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 31 69 100 19.1 25.2 23.3 185.1 80.2 71.0 4.2 7.9 17.3 29 Palic 37000G16 0 25 75 100 27.2 38.4 37.9 186.3 84.7 75.5 7.0 16.0 24.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 34 66 100 23.9 51.8 25.0 193.2 83.3 73.2 8.5 13.5 20.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 29 71 100 25.8 29.2 35.1 164.8 79.1 72.1 7.6 18.0 20.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 25 75 100 20.7 45.0 30.0 200.2 86.6 77.7 5.4 9.3 18.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 37 63 100 15.6 20.5 21.7 173.8 79.7 69.9 6.9 10.0 13.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 39 61 100 26.6 39.0 25.6 178.4 81.1 71.8 5.6 9.9 17.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 23 77 100 40.8 60.1 34.7 201.2 86.2 75.4 10.9 20.3 32.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 22 78 100 27.5 40.6 33.2 206.4 86.8 78.3 5.2 10.6 19.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 41 59 100 20.7 21.4 16.4 122.7 69.6 64.9 3.5 11.6 18.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 24 76 100 28.7 44.9 32.9 205.5 85.2 77.8 7.0 10.9 21.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 26 74 100 23.8 32.0 25.8 174.4 80.2 72.9 5.1 13.0 18.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 31 69 100 33.4 41.2 36.5 175.1 82.2 73.2 9.2 21.6 33.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 30 70 100 25.8 35.3 25.8 201.2 84.0 74.9 5.7 17.7 23.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------