***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 11.06.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 15.06.2020.-12.07.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 52 48 0 100 27.0 27.0 27.5 -0.6 42.0 42.5 26.9 27.3 28.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 75 25 100 27.6 26.9 27.4 -0.8 39.8 39.0 26.9 27.2 27.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 27.6 26.8 27.6 -0.7 41.0 40.7 26.6 27.3 28.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 53 47 0 100 19.4 20.2 25.0 -0.4 44.0 42.1 19.7 20.3 21.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 60 40 0 100 26.7 26.8 25.4 -0.9 35.1 34.8 26.7 27.7 28.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 55 45 0 100 25.5 25.9 23.1 -0.5 41.0 38.9 25.5 26.2 27.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 54 46 0 100 26.3 27.1 27.4 -0.6 41.6 40.7 26.7 27.2 27.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 55 45 0 100 14.8 15.3 23.6 -0.7 38.6 37.5 15.0 15.7 16.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 55 45 0 100 26.6 26.6 26.0 -0.7 41.1 38.7 26.3 27.5 27.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 54 46 0 100 26.1 26.6 24.4 -0.6 42.9 40.3 26.2 26.8 27.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 62 38 0 100 26.3 26.3 25.3 -1.1 32.1 32.2 26.4 27.4 28.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 61 39 0 100 25.6 25.7 24.8 -1.1 32.4 32.1 25.7 26.4 27.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 67 33 0 100 26.5 26.8 24.4 -1.3 27.3 29.1 26.9 27.4 28.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 53 47 0 100 26.4 26.6 25.5 -0.5 42.9 41.5 26.2 27.0 27.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 28.5 28.1 27.2 -0.4 47.0 44.6 27.8 28.2 29.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 65 35 0 100 27.0 27.1 24.8 -1.1 29.2 30.5 27.3 27.8 29.0 30 Nis 06700G01 57 43 0 100 25.9 26.4 27.1 -0.8 38.8 38.5 26.3 26.7 27.2 29 Palic 37000G16 53 47 0 100 25.5 25.9 23.6 -0.5 45.1 41.9 25.5 26.0 27.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 51 49 0 100 26.0 26.5 27.5 -0.8 41.3 40.0 26.2 26.7 27.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 55 45 0 100 21.1 21.6 21.2 -0.6 40.3 39.2 21.4 22.0 22.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 53 47 0 100 26.6 26.9 26.8 -0.7 40.1 39.1 26.7 27.4 28.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 27.4 26.9 27.4 -0.4 46.5 45.0 26.5 26.9 27.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 75 25 100 27.2 26.6 27.4 -0.8 40.0 39.6 26.5 26.8 27.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 53 47 0 100 25.9 26.2 25.6 -0.6 43.5 41.0 25.9 26.4 27.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 58 42 0 100 26.6 26.8 25.7 -0.7 38.7 38.8 26.6 27.4 28.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 56 44 0 100 26.2 26.7 24.7 -0.8 35.8 36.2 26.6 27.2 28.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 54 46 0 100 26.3 26.5 26.6 -0.5 42.2 42.4 26.4 26.8 27.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 75 25 100 28.7 28.0 25.8 -0.5 43.7 41.3 27.4 28.5 29.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 52 48 0 100 20.7 21.1 22.6 -0.5 42.7 41.0 20.7 21.6 22.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 27.4 26.8 27.6 -0.7 41.0 41.1 26.6 27.0 27.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------