***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 11.06.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 22.06.2020.-28.06.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 82 18 100 28.2 28.1 27.5 0.1 52.9 52.1 26.3 27.8 29.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 82 18 100 27.3 26.9 27.6 0.1 51.6 52.0 25.8 26.8 28.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 84 16 100 27.7 27.2 27.6 0.0 50.7 50.6 25.9 27.2 29.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 80 20 100 21.2 20.7 24.5 -0.1 49.8 49.5 18.7 20.7 21.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 28.5 27.1 25.1 -0.5 43.1 44.9 25.9 27.8 29.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 26.9 26.1 22.7 -0.4 42.9 45.9 25.2 26.5 27.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 82 18 100 27.6 27.4 27.5 0.2 54.1 53.2 25.4 27.2 28.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 80 20 100 16.1 14.9 23.2 -0.4 44.7 46.2 14.7 15.5 17.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 28.0 27.1 25.9 -0.2 48.1 47.9 25.3 27.3 29.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 80 20 100 28.0 27.0 24.1 -0.2 47.9 48.5 25.1 27.4 28.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 28.0 26.3 25.1 -0.8 40.9 42.3 25.2 27.3 29.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 27.1 25.6 24.3 -0.8 39.7 41.7 25.1 26.4 27.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 54 46 0 100 25.5 26.6 24.1 -1.1 34.0 38.3 26.4 27.5 28.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 83 17 100 27.8 27.6 25.8 0.2 53.7 53.0 26.1 27.3 29.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 83 17 100 28.7 28.4 27.0 -0.1 51.2 50.1 27.1 28.4 29.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 28.8 26.9 24.5 -1.0 36.8 40.0 26.7 28.1 29.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 82 18 100 27.0 27.2 27.3 0.2 53.1 52.5 24.9 26.6 27.9 29 Palic 37000G16 0 81 19 100 27.3 27.0 23.4 0.0 52.3 50.9 24.7 26.8 28.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 83 17 100 27.2 27.0 27.7 0.1 52.9 52.0 25.1 26.7 28.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 81 19 100 22.4 21.8 21.0 -0.1 49.4 49.2 20.3 21.8 24.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 27.9 27.1 26.9 -0.1 49.5 49.1 25.5 27.2 29.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 83 17 100 27.4 28.6 27.7 0.6 59.9 56.5 25.1 26.9 29.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 84 16 100 27.4 26.9 27.5 0.0 50.9 50.8 25.4 26.9 28.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 81 19 100 27.2 26.7 25.6 0.1 52.8 51.1 25.5 26.6 28.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 80 20 100 27.9 27.4 25.8 -0.1 50.3 49.6 25.8 27.4 29.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 27.8 26.8 24.0 -0.7 40.3 43.0 25.9 27.4 28.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 81 19 100 27.1 27.7 26.7 0.2 54.5 52.9 25.9 26.6 28.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 82 18 100 28.9 28.4 25.4 -0.3 47.8 47.8 27.4 28.5 29.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 22.7 22.8 22.5 0.1 52.1 51.2 19.7 22.1 24.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 83 17 100 27.6 27.3 27.7 0.1 52.4 52.8 25.7 27.1 28.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------