***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 11.06.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 15.06.2020.-21.06.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 80 20 0 100 25.3 25.5 25.4 -2.1 24.9 26.5 26.1 27.0 27.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 78 22 0 100 23.7 24.5 25.6 -2.4 24.2 25.4 25.8 26.6 26.9 30 Becej 27400G00 79 21 0 100 23.9 24.5 25.4 -2.4 24.2 25.2 25.3 26.6 27.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 81 19 0 100 17.1 18.3 22.2 -2.0 24.3 25.3 18.6 19.8 20.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 87 13 0 100 24.2 24.1 23.1 -2.5 20.5 21.4 25.8 26.7 27.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 86 14 0 100 23.0 22.7 20.6 -2.4 19.3 20.2 24.0 25.1 26.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 77 23 0 100 23.8 24.2 25.5 -2.1 25.4 26.3 25.3 26.6 27.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 86 14 0 100 12.7 12.6 20.8 -2.6 20.1 21.1 13.3 14.6 15.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 84 16 0 100 23.7 23.7 24.3 -2.2 24.0 25.1 24.6 26.1 27.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 86 14 0 100 24.0 24.2 22.0 -2.3 22.7 23.7 25.3 25.7 26.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 89 11 0 100 23.9 23.8 23.3 -2.9 18.3 19.1 25.3 26.2 26.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 90 10 0 100 23.7 23.5 22.0 -2.9 17.3 18.5 24.5 25.3 26.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 90 10 0 100 24.2 24.0 22.7 -3.1 15.3 15.6 25.1 26.1 27.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 85 15 0 100 23.5 24.2 23.8 -2.2 25.9 26.1 25.3 26.1 26.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 82 18 0 100 24.6 26.0 25.4 -2.1 25.3 26.1 26.6 27.5 28.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 91 9 0 100 24.3 24.0 22.7 -3.0 16.0 16.9 26.2 26.9 28.7 30 Nis 06700G01 80 20 0 100 22.8 23.8 25.1 -2.3 23.8 25.1 24.9 26.0 26.8 29 Palic 37000G16 89 11 0 100 23.2 23.5 20.9 -2.4 22.8 23.5 24.1 25.4 25.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 73 27 0 100 23.4 24.2 25.6 -2.4 25.6 26.4 24.9 26.0 26.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 89 11 0 100 18.7 18.6 18.5 -2.7 18.1 19.9 19.6 20.9 21.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 80 20 0 100 24.0 24.4 25.1 -2.2 23.3 25.2 25.3 26.6 27.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 64 36 0 100 24.2 24.4 25.4 -1.9 29.5 30.1 24.9 26.5 27.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 76 24 0 100 23.9 24.3 25.3 -2.5 24.3 25.6 25.2 26.3 27.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 88 12 0 100 23.2 24.3 23.6 -2.4 24.1 24.7 24.5 25.6 26.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 85 15 0 100 23.5 24.3 23.9 -2.4 21.8 23.2 25.6 26.7 27.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 89 11 0 100 24.1 23.9 21.6 -2.8 18.0 19.5 24.9 25.9 26.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 80 20 0 100 23.5 24.4 24.7 -2.1 24.8 25.9 25.2 26.1 26.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 83 17 0 100 24.8 25.3 23.4 -2.2 23.3 24.1 26.6 27.3 28.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 88 12 0 100 18.3 18.4 20.0 -2.5 20.7 22.3 18.8 20.6 21.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 74 26 0 100 23.9 24.3 25.6 -2.3 25.2 26.3 25.3 26.5 26.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------