***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 11.06.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 15.06.2020.-12.07.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 89 11 100 15.2 15.3 17.7 0.3 56.8 56.9 14.8 15.2 15.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 89 11 100 15.1 15.3 17.6 0.2 55.2 55.8 14.2 15.0 15.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 90 10 100 16.8 16.9 17.9 0.2 55.3 54.7 16.2 16.7 17.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 87 13 100 12.1 12.3 15.2 0.3 59.4 58.2 11.2 12.0 12.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 89 11 100 13.8 13.7 15.3 0.1 52.5 53.1 13.2 13.7 14.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 84 16 100 12.7 12.7 13.2 0.3 61.9 58.3 12.2 12.6 12.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 88 12 100 15.2 15.3 17.6 0.2 57.8 56.6 14.8 15.1 15.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 83 17 100 7.7 7.5 12.8 0.0 50.1 49.4 7.0 7.5 8.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 88 12 100 14.9 15.0 15.6 0.3 56.4 57.4 14.3 14.8 15.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 85 15 100 14.7 14.8 13.8 0.2 56.7 55.2 14.2 14.6 15.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 88 12 100 14.7 14.6 14.9 0.0 50.3 49.7 14.3 14.6 15.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 83 17 100 12.6 12.3 13.7 -0.2 46.3 45.0 12.0 12.4 13.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 84 16 100 14.1 14.0 13.5 0.0 51.0 50.7 13.8 14.0 14.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 86 14 100 15.5 15.5 15.5 0.3 60.6 59.2 15.0 15.3 15.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 88 12 100 15.8 16.4 17.0 0.4 64.0 62.0 15.3 15.7 16.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 84 16 100 15.0 14.8 14.2 0.0 48.9 48.7 14.2 14.9 15.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 87 13 100 15.6 15.5 17.4 0.2 57.7 57.4 15.1 15.5 15.8 29 Palic 37000G16 0 86 14 100 13.3 13.6 13.0 0.2 58.9 56.5 12.9 13.2 13.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 89 11 100 14.9 14.9 17.6 0.2 54.4 55.0 14.6 14.9 15.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 84 16 100 9.1 9.1 10.7 0.0 52.6 51.2 8.9 9.0 9.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 89 11 100 14.9 15.0 16.9 0.2 57.1 56.7 14.2 14.9 15.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 88 12 100 14.8 14.8 17.5 0.3 58.0 58.6 14.2 14.7 14.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 90 10 100 14.3 14.3 17.4 0.1 54.3 53.5 14.2 14.3 14.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 87 13 100 15.2 15.2 15.3 0.3 60.6 58.6 14.3 15.0 15.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 84 16 100 14.6 14.7 16.3 0.2 56.7 56.0 14.2 14.5 15.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 83 17 100 13.6 13.6 13.0 0.1 53.2 52.8 13.1 13.5 13.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 87 13 100 14.5 14.7 17.0 0.3 59.2 58.2 14.1 14.4 15.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 87 13 100 13.8 14.0 15.7 0.3 59.0 57.8 13.3 13.8 14.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 84 16 100 11.7 11.8 12.3 0.1 54.4 53.1 11.2 11.6 12.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 89 11 100 15.1 15.1 17.8 0.2 55.6 55.7 14.8 15.1 15.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------