***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 11.06.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 06.07.2020.-12.07.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 15.6 15.2 17.8 -0.2 53.0 49.8 14.6 15.1 15.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 15.2 14.8 17.7 -0.3 50.1 47.9 14.0 14.8 15.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 17.3 17.1 18.1 -0.2 50.6 48.8 15.8 17.0 18.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 12.4 11.9 15.4 -0.1 52.7 50.0 11.0 11.8 13.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 14.3 13.6 15.2 -0.3 45.1 46.6 12.7 14.0 14.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 59 41 0 100 11.3 12.8 13.5 -0.1 50.1 48.7 11.7 12.8 13.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 15.5 15.4 17.8 -0.2 53.1 50.0 14.6 15.3 16.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 8.2 7.7 13.0 -0.3 46.1 45.8 6.5 7.9 8.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 15.3 14.9 15.3 -0.2 47.5 48.0 14.1 15.1 15.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 15.3 15.0 13.8 -0.2 47.9 48.0 13.8 15.0 15.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 51 49 0 100 14.0 14.4 14.7 -0.5 41.5 44.5 13.6 15.0 15.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 54 46 0 100 11.5 12.2 13.9 -0.5 42.6 44.2 11.4 12.9 13.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 55 45 0 100 12.8 13.6 13.2 -0.3 44.4 45.4 12.8 14.0 15.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 16.0 15.6 15.3 -0.2 49.1 48.4 14.7 15.6 16.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 51 49 0 100 15.3 16.6 17.1 0.0 54.7 51.8 15.7 16.2 17.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 55 45 0 100 13.8 15.1 14.1 -0.4 42.3 45.1 14.5 15.2 16.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 15.8 15.5 17.5 -0.2 53.2 49.1 14.7 15.4 16.4 29 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 13.5 13.3 13.0 -0.1 52.4 49.5 11.9 13.1 14.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 15.1 14.7 17.7 -0.3 49.1 47.3 14.1 14.8 15.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 10.0 9.7 10.6 -0.2 48.4 47.3 8.0 9.8 10.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 14.8 14.6 16.8 -0.2 50.5 48.5 13.5 14.5 15.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 15.2 15.1 17.5 -0.1 53.9 50.3 14.2 14.9 15.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 14.6 14.1 17.5 -0.3 48.7 47.2 13.7 14.2 15.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 15.6 15.3 15.2 -0.1 51.7 49.3 14.4 15.3 16.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 75 25 100 15.3 15.2 16.2 -0.2 52.3 48.9 14.1 15.0 15.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 53 47 0 100 12.5 14.0 13.3 -0.1 51.3 49.8 12.5 13.8 14.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 15.0 15.1 17.0 -0.1 54.6 50.4 14.1 14.6 15.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 53 47 0 100 13.2 14.2 15.9 -0.1 52.4 50.0 13.1 14.2 15.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 12.3 12.0 12.4 -0.2 51.1 48.4 10.9 11.9 12.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 15.7 15.5 18.0 -0.2 51.0 48.9 14.3 15.5 16.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------