***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 11.06.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 29.06.2020.-05.07.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 89 11 100 16.1 16.4 18.2 0.6 61.7 60.2 15.2 16.0 16.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 88 12 100 16.0 16.3 18.0 0.5 59.5 58.0 14.0 15.8 16.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 86 14 100 17.7 18.2 18.4 0.6 60.9 59.0 16.4 17.5 18.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 85 15 100 12.7 13.3 15.6 0.6 62.7 60.3 12.0 12.4 13.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 86 14 100 14.7 14.9 15.5 0.5 59.8 58.3 13.9 14.6 15.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 84 16 100 13.7 13.8 13.8 0.7 65.3 62.0 12.8 13.6 13.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 89 11 100 16.1 16.6 18.1 0.5 59.5 57.8 14.9 15.9 16.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 86 14 100 8.7 8.8 13.4 0.6 61.8 59.8 7.7 8.5 9.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 86 14 100 15.8 16.2 15.7 0.6 61.8 60.1 14.6 15.6 16.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 86 14 100 15.3 15.9 14.3 0.7 63.5 61.2 14.8 15.1 16.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 85 15 100 15.5 15.7 15.0 0.4 59.5 56.9 14.7 15.3 15.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 85 15 100 13.5 13.5 14.2 0.4 59.1 57.0 12.8 13.3 13.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 85 15 100 15.0 15.2 13.5 0.4 58.0 56.5 14.2 14.8 15.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 86 14 100 16.1 16.5 15.8 0.6 64.0 60.6 15.2 15.9 16.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 84 16 100 17.0 17.3 17.2 0.7 64.1 62.2 16.1 16.9 17.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 84 16 100 15.8 16.1 14.4 0.4 58.1 56.3 15.2 15.5 16.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 87 13 100 16.3 16.9 17.8 0.5 59.9 58.2 14.9 16.1 17.1 29 Palic 37000G16 0 85 15 100 14.0 14.5 13.5 0.7 66.9 62.6 13.1 13.7 14.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 88 12 100 15.9 16.3 18.1 0.5 59.9 58.3 14.6 15.8 16.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 86 14 100 10.0 10.4 11.2 0.7 65.2 62.2 9.3 9.8 10.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 87 13 100 15.4 16.2 17.2 0.6 61.6 59.7 14.5 15.3 16.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 87 13 100 15.3 15.9 17.8 0.7 61.4 60.3 14.2 15.1 16.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 87 13 100 15.3 15.5 17.9 0.5 59.5 58.1 14.1 15.2 15.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 86 14 100 16.1 16.4 15.6 0.7 64.6 61.1 14.8 16.0 16.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 87 13 100 15.8 16.0 16.5 0.6 60.3 60.0 14.7 15.7 16.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 82 18 100 14.7 14.7 13.6 0.6 63.5 60.0 13.9 14.6 14.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 86 14 100 15.4 16.0 17.4 0.7 62.0 60.9 14.3 15.2 16.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 85 15 100 14.5 15.2 16.0 0.6 63.0 60.3 14.1 14.2 15.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 86 14 100 12.6 13.3 12.8 0.7 65.9 61.8 11.7 12.3 13.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 88 12 100 16.3 16.6 18.2 0.5 60.5 58.0 14.8 16.2 16.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------