***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 11.06.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 22.06.2020.-28.06.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 85 15 100 14.7 14.6 17.6 0.5 58.7 58.1 14.2 14.4 14.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 85 15 100 14.7 14.9 17.7 0.7 63.2 60.9 13.9 14.4 15.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 87 13 100 16.4 16.5 17.8 0.5 58.2 57.8 15.5 16.1 17.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 87 13 100 11.8 11.9 15.2 0.6 60.9 60.6 10.2 11.5 12.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 88 12 100 13.4 13.5 15.4 0.4 56.0 57.3 12.3 13.3 13.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 91 9 100 12.2 12.3 13.0 0.5 59.4 58.9 11.2 12.1 12.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 84 16 100 14.8 14.9 17.7 0.6 61.8 61.1 14.3 14.6 15.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 86 14 100 7.4 7.7 12.9 0.5 58.0 57.7 6.6 7.2 8.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 89 11 100 14.4 14.4 15.7 0.6 58.4 59.6 13.6 14.2 14.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 87 13 100 14.4 14.3 14.0 0.6 60.7 60.2 13.7 14.2 14.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 87 13 100 14.2 14.3 15.0 0.4 56.4 55.9 13.5 14.1 14.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 88 12 100 12.2 12.2 13.8 0.2 54.7 53.8 11.7 12.1 12.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 87 13 100 13.6 13.9 13.7 0.2 56.4 55.2 12.9 13.5 14.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 87 13 100 15.1 15.1 15.6 0.7 63.0 62.2 14.3 14.8 15.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 86 14 100 15.3 15.7 17.0 0.6 60.7 60.9 14.8 15.1 16.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 88 12 100 14.3 14.3 14.4 0.2 54.8 54.4 13.7 14.2 14.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 43 57 100 16.0 15.4 17.5 0.7 65.1 61.9 14.6 15.1 15.4 29 Palic 37000G16 0 85 15 100 13.0 13.4 13.2 0.6 60.4 60.4 12.3 12.7 13.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 86 14 100 14.7 14.7 17.7 0.6 62.6 60.0 13.9 14.3 14.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 84 16 100 9.1 9.0 11.0 0.4 56.2 57.6 8.3 8.9 9.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 89 11 100 14.3 14.4 16.9 0.5 58.1 58.6 13.5 14.2 14.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 83 17 100 14.5 14.7 17.6 0.8 64.8 62.3 13.5 14.1 14.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 88 12 100 14.0 14.2 17.5 0.5 59.0 58.4 13.3 13.7 14.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 86 14 100 14.8 15.2 15.5 0.6 62.0 61.2 13.9 14.5 15.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 85 15 100 14.5 14.4 16.3 0.5 58.0 57.3 13.1 14.3 14.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 87 13 100 13.2 13.2 13.0 0.2 56.6 54.9 12.5 13.0 13.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 84 16 100 14.0 14.4 16.9 0.5 59.9 58.4 13.0 13.6 15.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 87 13 100 13.5 13.6 15.6 0.5 58.9 59.3 12.5 13.4 13.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 86 14 100 11.7 12.1 12.5 0.5 58.9 59.2 10.1 11.5 12.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 85 15 100 14.9 14.7 17.9 0.6 61.2 60.1 14.2 14.6 15.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------