***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 11.06.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 15.06.2020.-21.06.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 99 1 100 14.6 14.5 17.1 0.0 48.3 48.6 13.6 14.6 15.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 96 4 100 14.1 13.9 17.0 -0.1 46.6 47.1 12.5 14.0 15.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 95 5 100 16.0 15.8 17.1 -0.2 46.3 45.8 14.9 15.9 16.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 99 1 100 11.1 11.1 14.7 0.1 53.2 52.7 9.7 11.0 12.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 95 5 100 13.0 12.9 15.1 -0.1 49.0 48.3 11.8 12.9 13.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 92 8 100 11.9 12.2 12.4 0.1 54.5 53.7 11.0 11.8 12.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 95 5 100 14.3 14.1 17.0 0.0 47.2 47.6 13.3 14.2 15.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 81 19 100 7.1 5.3 11.7 -0.7 36.2 36.6 5.2 6.6 7.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 92 8 100 13.9 14.0 15.5 0.2 52.6 52.3 13.0 13.8 15.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 85 15 100 14.0 13.5 13.1 -0.3 44.7 44.8 12.9 13.8 14.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 88 12 100 14.0 13.3 14.6 -0.3 42.1 43.1 12.7 13.8 14.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 80 20 100 11.8 10.8 12.7 -0.9 34.7 34.5 10.8 11.4 13.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 86 14 100 13.5 13.2 13.6 -0.1 49.2 48.8 12.4 13.3 14.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 94 6 100 14.8 14.9 15.1 0.1 52.6 52.1 13.4 14.7 15.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 94 6 100 15.1 15.8 16.9 0.4 60.0 59.0 13.9 15.0 16.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 86 14 100 14.4 13.6 14.1 -0.3 44.2 44.2 12.8 14.2 15.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 96 4 100 14.4 14.3 16.8 0.0 48.6 48.5 13.5 14.4 15.4 29 Palic 37000G16 0 86 14 100 12.9 12.2 12.4 -0.3 43.4 43.5 11.8 12.7 13.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 96 4 100 14.0 13.6 17.0 -0.2 44.8 45.4 13.3 13.9 14.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 8.5 7.7 10.1 -0.8 34.3 35.6 7.6 8.1 8.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 95 5 100 14.1 14.0 16.6 0.1 50.1 50.7 12.9 14.0 14.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 98 2 100 13.6 13.4 17.0 0.0 49.0 48.3 12.8 13.5 14.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 95 5 100 13.4 13.0 16.7 -0.3 42.4 42.8 12.4 13.3 14.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 90 10 100 14.3 14.2 15.1 0.0 50.3 50.3 13.0 14.2 15.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 98 2 100 13.6 13.5 16.1 0.0 48.5 48.4 12.5 13.5 14.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 91 9 100 12.9 12.6 12.3 -0.3 47.0 46.3 11.6 12.8 13.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 98 2 100 13.4 13.4 16.6 0.1 50.6 50.2 12.2 13.4 14.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 94 6 100 12.9 13.0 15.3 0.2 55.0 54.8 12.0 12.8 13.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 11.0 9.8 11.4 -0.6 37.8 38.6 9.5 10.5 11.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 94 6 100 14.5 14.1 17.2 -0.1 45.7 46.3 13.3 14.4 15.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------