***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 11.06.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 15.06.2015.-12.07.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 52 48 0 100 36.6 53.2 41.9 95.7 55.0 47.5 34.0 52.8 57.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 58 42 0 100 42.7 55.1 39.6 88.4 51.6 44.7 43.9 54.3 64.4 30 Becej 27400G00 57 43 0 100 44.8 59.9 42.9 93.1 57.7 47.0 46.1 53.4 73.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 66.7 76.1 55.0 112.9 62.9 55.5 41.4 57.1 83.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 54.8 62.3 56.5 109.0 63.7 54.4 37.8 47.8 65.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 75 25 100 50.0 50.2 66.1 104.5 59.8 53.9 29.7 44.1 55.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 60 40 0 100 39.1 59.7 39.0 87.0 54.3 44.7 37.4 58.0 69.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 83 17 100 83.1 86.1 66.1 111.0 62.8 57.2 55.4 72.1 92.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 57.6 69.3 56.3 104.1 62.8 52.6 43.5 52.3 70.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 81 19 100 85.6 87.4 68.4 108.1 64.1 55.6 63.2 82.0 88.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 81 19 100 55.2 67.3 52.2 117.1 64.8 58.6 34.8 50.1 69.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 84 16 100 55.1 64.9 49.8 112.1 62.1 56.9 35.6 50.6 65.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 80 20 100 45.7 50.2 55.2 110.7 63.0 56.2 29.6 41.5 54.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 57 43 0 100 66.1 96.1 62.0 99.6 58.0 49.8 67.4 80.5 103.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 49.2 54.9 46.9 110.3 64.5 54.5 22.9 41.6 56.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 82 18 100 49.5 53.9 52.1 112.6 63.8 57.0 35.1 44.3 55.1 30 Nis 06700G01 54 46 0 100 35.4 50.5 37.1 83.3 49.9 43.9 37.0 50.6 59.8 29 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 71.3 73.2 77.5 107.0 61.9 54.7 48.1 60.2 88.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 61 39 0 100 37.9 58.6 40.3 89.8 53.0 44.9 49.3 55.0 80.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 68.0 71.6 84.6 116.3 64.0 59.2 57.2 62.5 71.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 63.0 60.2 47.3 101.1 60.5 50.8 38.6 56.6 63.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 59 41 0 100 35.5 51.7 37.8 81.3 46.8 41.9 40.2 52.5 64.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 64 36 0 100 44.8 69.1 43.4 92.4 55.1 46.3 54.6 64.4 80.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 51 49 0 100 56.7 91.6 62.0 101.4 59.9 51.3 69.3 81.2 100.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 56 44 0 100 38.2 61.3 52.0 97.4 57.2 48.1 41.2 53.6 72.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 83 17 100 45.9 51.6 44.0 107.7 61.3 56.0 27.7 43.2 53.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 58 42 0 100 44.7 71.2 47.9 92.2 52.6 46.2 51.3 68.6 79.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 48.0 56.2 51.6 112.1 64.8 55.6 28.4 41.0 57.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 92.8 118.3 79.4 113.7 65.0 57.4 60.6 83.1 120.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 58 42 0 100 44.6 62.7 40.6 90.3 53.6 45.0 56.2 62.0 71.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------