***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 11.06.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 06.07.2015.-12.07.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 7.3 4.8 2.6 42.1 54.2 41.4 2.1 4.7 8.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 58 42 0 100 2.5 6.4 4.2 60.1 55.4 39.8 2.3 5.2 11.8 30 Becej 27400G00 56 44 0 100 3.5 7.3 2.4 36.2 48.6 35.9 5.4 7.6 14.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 55 45 0 100 4.5 10.6 3.5 47.1 54.5 39.3 6.1 9.8 15.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 57 43 0 100 3.5 8.3 3.3 41.5 53.3 39.7 4.0 7.6 12.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 53 47 0 100 4.1 10.7 6.4 64.0 64.6 45.2 4.5 8.6 11.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 59 41 0 100 2.4 8.3 4.7 67.5 58.6 41.7 1.2 5.9 9.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 59 41 0 100 9.6 16.3 4.1 35.6 45.2 35.6 12.3 19.3 30.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 59 41 0 100 3.3 9.5 3.0 33.7 52.8 37.8 5.0 7.8 16.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 62 38 0 100 7.3 10.5 3.8 32.7 46.2 35.1 8.3 12.7 25.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 62 38 0 100 4.7 10.6 2.6 36.0 52.5 36.5 4.4 10.1 14.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 64 36 0 100 4.0 10.1 2.5 34.2 49.7 35.3 4.9 10.2 15.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 60 40 0 100 3.0 9.7 3.4 46.9 59.3 40.3 3.0 6.4 13.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 58 42 0 100 6.3 12.8 5.1 45.2 52.3 37.0 5.7 11.8 19.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 60 40 0 100 1.7 5.5 3.1 49.7 61.0 40.9 1.8 4.1 6.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 57 43 0 100 5.2 12.8 3.0 43.1 58.7 40.5 4.4 10.2 15.2 30 Nis 06700G01 64 36 0 100 1.2 5.8 4.8 70.7 62.2 42.2 1.0 3.1 6.7 29 Palic 37000G16 58 42 0 100 10.1 14.2 5.2 35.8 45.2 34.8 9.5 19.0 27.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 56 44 0 100 4.2 9.4 3.5 50.4 52.7 38.5 2.3 8.4 12.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 56 44 0 100 8.9 14.9 7.0 46.4 46.5 38.1 8.3 16.6 22.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 58 42 0 100 3.8 7.4 2.2 31.6 51.3 38.2 4.3 7.3 12.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 65 35 0 100 3.1 11.3 4.4 64.2 58.3 42.1 2.7 8.9 13.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 52 48 0 100 4.4 8.5 2.9 39.4 51.8 36.7 3.5 8.4 15.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 60 40 0 100 5.9 12.0 4.2 38.3 49.0 35.1 5.0 12.1 21.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 75 25 100 8.8 5.8 3.0 39.7 50.7 38.0 3.9 5.8 10.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 57 43 0 100 2.9 9.8 3.2 61.8 63.5 43.3 2.8 6.8 11.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 9.9 7.4 3.3 43.5 52.0 39.2 4.4 6.9 13.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 55 45 0 100 3.0 9.2 3.3 46.4 59.6 41.4 2.0 6.4 10.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 57 43 0 100 14.3 23.2 6.0 40.6 49.1 37.1 15.2 23.3 30.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 56 44 0 100 2.4 5.8 3.7 53.9 53.5 38.7 1.9 5.1 10.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------