***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 11.06.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 29.06.2015.-05.07.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 58 42 0 100 5.7 13.3 8.3 73.0 56.8 38.2 4.6 11.1 25.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 61 39 0 100 5.5 15.7 9.4 74.6 58.3 41.4 4.8 12.3 19.9 30 Becej 27400G00 61 39 0 100 4.3 11.1 8.7 70.7 57.6 39.6 3.1 9.5 14.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 53 47 0 100 2.7 5.2 8.5 64.6 53.6 40.8 3.1 5.2 9.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 53 47 0 100 4.5 9.7 9.2 64.0 55.5 40.5 3.5 9.1 13.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 66 34 0 100 2.7 4.3 10.8 58.9 43.1 35.2 2.6 4.9 9.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 56 44 0 100 5.5 14.0 9.5 76.3 59.1 41.4 4.2 11.9 16.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 61 39 0 100 7.6 18.8 11.0 70.8 54.2 40.3 7.6 14.8 25.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 54 46 0 100 2.4 7.0 10.2 67.7 56.9 39.7 2.6 5.2 9.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 55 45 0 100 7.7 11.5 11.7 68.8 54.3 40.3 8.7 11.1 14.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 58 42 0 100 3.3 6.7 6.8 55.7 55.1 36.7 3.7 6.6 9.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 66 34 0 100 4.0 13.0 7.3 59.6 56.4 37.0 6.1 10.1 15.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 65 35 0 100 2.5 6.3 8.7 61.8 48.2 36.6 3.0 6.3 7.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 54 46 0 100 6.4 11.6 11.0 60.7 55.2 38.7 4.4 11.1 19.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 59 41 0 100 0.6 2.9 6.8 67.6 59.2 41.8 0.4 1.4 5.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 58 42 0 100 1.7 3.9 7.2 57.5 51.0 36.7 3.5 3.8 6.6 30 Nis 06700G01 60 40 0 100 1.8 10.6 8.9 67.1 57.3 38.6 2.3 4.2 17.1 29 Palic 37000G16 57 43 0 100 6.4 15.9 14.1 72.5 55.2 40.9 9.0 14.9 23.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 63 37 0 100 2.4 7.6 9.2 72.8 57.8 40.3 2.7 5.8 10.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 62 38 0 100 7.8 21.3 16.4 91.9 56.9 44.1 10.6 18.2 26.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 57 43 0 100 5.4 11.8 8.3 64.1 55.5 37.7 2.3 10.8 15.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 68 32 0 100 2.5 7.8 8.5 60.4 51.1 35.2 3.9 7.8 16.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 63 37 0 100 3.6 10.4 9.1 67.8 57.8 38.3 5.6 8.1 17.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 54 46 0 100 5.3 11.7 11.2 66.0 56.4 39.9 5.0 9.2 20.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 60 40 0 100 3.0 7.1 9.5 66.5 53.2 38.6 4.5 6.4 9.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 61 39 0 100 2.3 6.0 6.1 59.5 52.6 37.9 2.4 5.9 8.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 59 41 0 100 5.7 13.7 9.7 71.3 55.6 37.7 6.3 9.3 17.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 55 45 0 100 1.1 3.4 7.5 65.1 54.4 40.1 1.1 2.5 5.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 57 43 0 100 8.0 18.6 13.9 76.5 53.8 42.2 9.2 16.7 31.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 59 41 0 100 5.4 14.1 9.3 75.9 58.9 40.5 7.3 9.1 16.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------