***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 11.06.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 15.06.2015.-21.06.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 38 62 100 23.4 29.6 22.3 139.8 73.6 63.3 5.2 8.6 21.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 16.8 29.5 16.7 120.1 74.3 59.4 9.2 10.7 20.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 36 64 100 28.2 37.7 22.2 137.6 76.2 61.7 5.0 9.5 29.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 40 60 100 29.2 45.7 29.6 176.0 82.6 66.9 3.8 10.5 23.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 38 62 100 30.4 41.1 30.2 170.8 79.6 67.6 3.4 16.0 23.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 38 62 100 25.3 31.0 27.9 159.6 78.4 67.6 6.1 16.3 20.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 13.9 17.1 16.0 113.9 71.9 57.6 7.6 10.1 15.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 29 71 100 33.7 44.1 32.5 177.2 82.8 73.1 9.6 16.3 24.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 30 70 100 24.4 29.2 29.3 163.4 80.1 69.0 8.6 15.9 18.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 26 74 100 34.3 45.6 34.7 178.5 82.1 73.0 12.2 17.9 35.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 30 70 100 24.2 30.2 29.7 193.4 85.6 71.9 6.0 16.5 24.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 31 69 100 20.1 26.8 26.8 177.4 83.3 71.4 2.7 10.1 17.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 41 59 100 20.9 29.7 27.5 169.3 84.7 68.8 6.0 13.2 25.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 29 71 100 33.4 40.7 31.4 178.4 82.3 71.4 14.0 20.9 28.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 80 20 100 8.6 23.8 25.5 157.2 76.8 64.5 1.8 4.7 11.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 36 64 100 22.4 34.3 28.1 179.6 84.6 69.6 6.5 12.4 16.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 11.6 19.5 14.8 111.9 70.7 58.6 4.2 7.9 17.3 29 Palic 37000G16 0 16 84 100 28.6 32.7 36.9 183.2 82.7 74.5 7.0 16.0 24.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 16.8 26.4 18.1 126.5 75.6 60.4 8.5 13.5 20.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 22 78 100 26.6 32.8 36.3 182.2 82.1 75.1 7.6 18.0 20.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 31 69 100 19.8 27.1 26.6 162.7 80.6 66.8 5.4 9.3 18.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 12.1 16.4 15.6 115.6 72.5 58.0 6.9 10.0 13.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 80 20 100 15.4 38.2 21.1 142.7 79.0 62.6 5.6 9.9 17.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 21 79 100 41.3 49.7 31.3 173.7 81.8 71.2 10.9 20.3 32.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 36 64 100 24.4 32.2 27.7 148.8 77.2 63.5 5.2 10.6 19.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 38 62 100 21.2 26.0 22.0 134.6 72.3 61.7 3.5 11.6 18.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 39 61 100 25.1 29.4 24.3 137.2 74.9 62.3 7.0 10.9 21.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 43 57 100 21.3 32.1 27.5 169.8 82.6 66.2 5.1 13.0 18.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 12 88 100 36.7 45.3 37.6 196.4 83.6 76.9 9.2 21.6 33.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 20.2 27.3 18.3 124.3 74.2 59.5 5.7 17.7 23.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------