***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 11.06.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 15.06.2015.-12.07.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 33 67 100 28.3 28.5 29.0 0.8 72.2 63.4 26.9 27.3 28.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 28 72 100 28.2 28.5 29.3 0.8 71.5 63.0 26.9 27.2 27.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 35 65 100 28.1 27.8 28.6 0.3 61.9 57.3 26.6 27.3 28.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 55 45 0 100 19.3 20.7 26.6 0.2 57.9 55.5 19.7 20.3 21.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 53 47 0 100 26.9 27.8 26.5 0.0 51.4 52.6 26.7 27.7 28.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 75 25 100 26.6 26.3 24.1 0.0 52.7 52.4 25.5 26.2 27.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 27 73 100 28.1 28.0 29.3 0.9 72.8 64.2 26.7 27.2 27.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 16.1 15.8 24.6 0.0 51.0 52.1 15.0 15.7 16.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 55 45 0 100 26.6 27.5 26.9 0.0 51.6 53.2 26.3 27.5 27.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 53 47 0 100 26.1 26.8 25.2 -0.2 47.8 50.1 26.2 26.8 27.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 53 47 0 100 26.4 27.7 26.0 0.1 53.7 54.0 26.4 27.4 28.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 75 25 100 26.7 26.9 25.9 0.3 59.1 57.2 25.7 26.4 27.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 27.9 27.9 25.4 0.2 59.1 56.1 26.9 27.4 28.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 51 49 0 100 26.4 27.0 26.2 -0.2 52.5 49.6 26.2 27.0 27.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 34 66 100 29.1 28.9 27.9 0.5 64.6 60.4 27.8 28.2 29.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 53 47 0 100 27.1 28.8 25.9 0.2 56.7 55.2 27.3 27.8 29.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 31 69 100 27.6 27.3 28.8 0.6 69.2 60.4 26.3 26.7 27.2 29 Palic 37000G16 52 48 0 100 25.5 25.9 24.1 -0.4 44.2 45.7 25.5 26.0 27.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 27 73 100 27.9 27.6 29.2 0.7 70.5 61.9 26.2 26.7 27.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 75 25 100 22.5 21.7 22.0 -0.5 42.0 43.4 21.4 22.0 22.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 54 46 0 100 26.6 27.8 27.9 0.2 57.5 55.2 26.7 27.4 28.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 30 70 100 28.3 28.1 28.4 0.5 69.7 59.1 26.5 26.9 27.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 25 75 100 28.0 27.8 28.6 0.5 67.9 59.8 26.5 26.8 27.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 51 49 0 100 25.9 26.3 26.2 -0.2 49.1 49.1 25.9 26.4 27.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 30 70 100 28.1 28.0 27.1 0.5 66.0 59.7 26.6 27.4 28.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 27.5 27.8 25.5 0.3 60.0 57.7 26.6 27.2 28.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 29 71 100 27.8 27.8 28.1 0.8 71.6 63.3 26.4 26.8 27.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 54 46 0 100 27.5 29.1 27.2 0.3 59.5 57.0 27.4 28.5 29.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 51 49 0 100 20.8 21.1 23.1 -0.6 43.1 43.6 20.7 21.6 22.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 26 74 100 28.2 27.8 29.3 0.8 71.3 63.1 26.6 27.0 27.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------