***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 11.06.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 06.07.2015.-12.07.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 27 73 100 29.8 31.0 32.1 2.7 85.9 76.6 27.1 28.1 30.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 27 73 100 29.3 30.8 32.3 2.6 83.1 74.2 26.6 27.7 29.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 25 75 100 30.0 31.0 31.9 2.4 80.5 74.0 26.3 27.4 29.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 30 70 100 22.5 23.3 29.9 2.1 79.8 72.0 19.1 20.6 22.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 27 73 100 30.2 31.1 29.8 2.1 80.5 72.7 26.3 28.4 29.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 28 72 100 28.9 30.2 27.3 2.0 83.7 74.5 25.5 26.7 28.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 30 70 100 29.5 30.3 32.2 2.6 83.2 74.1 26.6 27.7 29.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 26 74 100 17.8 18.6 28.0 2.3 83.0 75.3 14.7 15.9 16.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 24 76 100 29.7 30.7 30.1 2.2 80.7 73.3 26.3 27.7 29.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 29 71 100 29.2 30.3 28.5 2.1 81.2 73.1 26.1 27.2 29.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 22 78 100 29.6 30.7 29.3 2.3 82.1 74.9 26.2 27.8 29.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 19 81 100 29.0 29.7 29.4 2.5 84.7 77.6 25.2 26.9 28.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 25 75 100 29.9 31.1 28.7 2.3 85.0 75.9 27.0 27.9 29.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 31 69 100 29.0 29.9 29.4 2.1 78.2 70.8 26.6 27.1 28.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 30 70 100 30.3 31.3 30.6 2.2 83.5 73.7 27.7 28.9 30.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 23 77 100 30.6 31.4 29.2 2.2 81.7 74.9 27.4 29.0 30.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 30 70 100 29.1 30.1 31.7 2.4 79.4 71.3 26.1 27.0 28.3 29 Palic 37000G16 0 35 65 100 28.2 29.1 27.6 1.9 78.9 70.9 25.5 26.4 27.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 26 74 100 29.1 30.3 32.3 2.7 82.8 74.7 26.3 27.0 28.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 34 66 100 23.8 24.5 25.4 1.8 77.7 70.7 20.9 22.2 23.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 22 78 100 30.2 31.2 31.1 2.4 81.0 74.0 26.2 27.7 29.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 28 72 100 29.5 30.5 31.5 2.4 80.6 72.1 26.8 27.7 28.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 26 74 100 29.7 30.8 31.8 2.6 82.7 74.9 26.4 27.3 28.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 30 70 100 29.1 30.1 29.5 2.1 79.0 71.5 26.2 27.0 27.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 28 72 100 29.9 30.9 30.2 2.5 85.3 75.4 26.1 27.9 29.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 26 74 100 29.6 30.4 29.0 2.4 87.2 77.7 26.4 27.7 29.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 29 71 100 29.4 30.5 31.1 2.7 86.5 76.6 26.1 27.4 28.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 29 71 100 30.8 31.8 30.3 2.1 81.0 72.8 27.2 29.0 30.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 35 65 100 24.0 25.1 26.5 1.8 76.8 69.7 20.9 21.5 22.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 28 72 100 29.4 30.3 32.4 2.7 83.3 75.0 26.5 27.5 29.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------