***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 11.06.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 29.06.2015.-05.07.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 25 75 100 30.1 30.4 30.0 2.0 77.6 69.0 27.9 29.2 29.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 29 71 100 29.7 30.1 30.5 2.3 81.0 70.5 27.1 28.7 29.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 27 73 100 29.8 30.1 29.8 1.7 75.1 66.0 27.3 28.4 29.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 27 73 100 23.4 23.4 27.7 1.2 72.2 63.6 19.7 21.1 22.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 28 72 100 30.7 30.9 27.5 1.1 71.2 62.8 27.7 28.8 30.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 80 20 100 28.1 28.5 25.2 1.0 66.2 63.4 26.2 27.6 28.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 30 70 100 29.5 30.1 30.4 2.3 81.1 71.1 27.3 28.5 29.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 33 67 100 18.3 18.3 25.7 1.1 69.5 63.3 15.8 17.0 18.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 29 71 100 30.0 30.4 27.8 1.2 70.8 63.0 27.0 28.5 30.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 31 69 100 29.8 29.9 26.2 1.0 69.1 61.8 26.9 28.3 29.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 27 73 100 30.5 30.4 27.0 1.2 71.1 63.4 27.0 28.4 30.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 32 68 100 29.4 29.3 27.0 1.4 72.3 65.5 26.3 27.5 29.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 35 65 100 30.6 30.7 26.3 1.2 70.0 64.5 27.5 28.8 30.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 31 69 100 29.3 29.3 27.4 1.3 71.0 62.4 27.0 28.2 29.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 26 74 100 31.2 31.7 28.6 1.4 74.7 65.8 27.8 29.3 31.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 32 68 100 31.4 31.6 26.9 1.1 69.8 63.5 27.6 29.7 31.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 33 67 100 29.0 29.4 30.1 2.2 80.2 70.2 26.5 28.2 29.0 29 Palic 37000G16 0 35 65 100 28.9 28.4 25.4 0.9 66.0 60.4 26.1 27.9 28.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 30 70 100 29.3 30.0 30.4 2.2 80.3 69.5 26.4 28.0 28.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 38 62 100 24.8 24.3 23.2 0.8 65.2 60.3 22.0 23.4 24.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 27 73 100 30.2 30.3 28.9 1.4 72.3 64.6 27.4 28.5 30.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 33 67 100 29.4 29.9 29.8 2.1 78.8 69.3 26.8 28.3 29.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 33 67 100 29.3 29.9 29.8 2.0 78.9 67.6 26.9 28.1 29.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 32 68 100 29.1 29.0 27.3 1.2 68.8 62.0 26.4 27.5 29.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 19 81 100 30.5 30.8 28.1 1.7 75.0 67.1 27.4 28.5 29.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 38 62 100 30.1 30.1 26.6 1.3 73.0 65.9 27.0 28.5 29.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 22 78 100 29.9 30.5 29.1 2.0 77.8 69.4 27.2 28.0 29.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 28 72 100 31.2 31.5 28.1 1.2 71.6 63.7 27.5 29.5 31.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 37 63 100 24.0 23.8 24.3 0.9 65.9 60.0 21.2 22.9 23.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 27 73 100 29.4 29.9 30.5 2.2 79.6 69.8 27.1 28.3 29.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------