***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 11.06.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 22.06.2015.-28.06.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 28.3 28.4 28.1 0.1 54.9 52.4 26.3 27.8 29.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 57 43 0 100 24.8 28.2 28.6 0.2 59.6 53.8 25.8 26.8 28.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 27.9 27.1 27.8 -0.3 48.8 48.4 25.9 27.2 29.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 56 44 0 100 18.5 19.5 25.6 -0.6 41.4 45.4 18.7 20.7 21.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 53 47 0 100 26.0 27.0 25.4 -0.8 39.5 43.6 25.9 27.8 29.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 53 47 0 100 24.5 25.7 23.1 -0.9 37.3 41.3 25.2 26.5 27.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 30 70 100 28.7 28.4 28.6 0.3 62.1 54.2 25.4 27.2 28.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 55 45 0 100 13.9 14.8 23.6 -0.9 39.4 42.3 14.7 15.5 17.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 53 47 0 100 25.5 26.1 25.8 -0.7 41.1 44.3 25.3 27.3 29.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 58 42 0 100 25.2 25.9 24.2 -1.0 37.8 42.0 25.1 27.4 28.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 56 44 0 100 25.5 26.2 24.9 -0.8 38.9 43.8 25.2 27.3 29.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 54 46 0 100 24.5 25.8 24.8 -0.7 41.5 44.4 25.1 26.4 27.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 51 49 0 100 25.6 26.8 24.1 -0.8 39.8 43.2 26.4 27.5 28.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 52 48 0 100 25.1 26.8 25.4 -0.9 40.6 43.8 26.1 27.3 29.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 57 43 0 100 26.7 28.0 26.5 -0.3 45.5 48.9 27.1 28.4 29.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 55 45 0 100 26.2 27.0 24.6 -0.8 38.7 43.2 26.7 28.1 29.4 30 Nis 06700G01 59 41 0 100 24.5 27.6 28.2 0.1 57.4 52.6 24.9 26.6 27.9 29 Palic 37000G16 59 41 0 100 24.5 25.1 23.3 -1.2 34.9 40.0 24.7 26.8 28.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 54 46 0 100 24.6 27.6 28.4 0.1 56.5 52.8 25.1 26.7 28.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 59 41 0 100 20.1 20.6 21.1 -1.4 34.7 38.2 20.3 21.8 24.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 52 48 0 100 25.4 26.8 26.9 -0.5 45.1 46.8 25.5 27.2 29.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 57 43 0 100 24.8 27.6 27.8 0.0 54.1 51.5 25.1 26.9 29.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 27.6 27.0 27.8 -0.1 51.9 50.6 25.4 26.9 28.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 55 45 0 100 24.4 26.3 25.4 -0.9 39.1 42.9 25.5 26.6 28.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 51 49 0 100 25.8 27.4 26.1 -0.2 50.1 49.7 25.8 27.4 29.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 51 49 0 100 25.6 26.8 24.2 -0.8 40.4 43.7 25.9 27.4 28.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 51 49 0 100 25.0 28.0 27.2 0.2 56.2 52.9 25.9 26.6 28.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 58 42 0 100 26.9 27.5 26.0 -0.6 41.5 45.9 27.4 28.5 29.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 60 40 0 100 19.7 20.1 22.3 -1.3 34.1 39.2 19.7 22.1 24.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 53 47 0 100 25.1 28.3 28.6 0.2 59.0 53.3 25.7 27.1 28.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------